Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7af485895a8621069f2c60845c9533675b02af04df9de0b5dad3c19b6c72899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 1,955$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,157$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 1,011$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 911.76$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…6900backed Yes | 4c | 880.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 8c | 630.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 11c | 600$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 591.63$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 6c | 434.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…38e4backed Yes | 8c | 429.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 9c | 410.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 13c | 397.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 320$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 38c | 302.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 278.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 51c | 245.05$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 45c | 240.89$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 6c | 233.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 57c | 222.03$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 10c | 181.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 33c | 166.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 57c | 141.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 19c | 129.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 123.16$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 116.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked No | 45c | 115.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 47c | 109.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed No | 50c | 108.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 46c | 104.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 10c | 100.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 37c | 100.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 18c | 94.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…5385backed Yes | 54c | 86.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 35c | 82.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 38c | 80.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 68c | 71.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 47c | 60.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 22c | 53.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 54c | 53.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…7a18backed Yes | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 52c | 48.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 70c | 45.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 42c | 44.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…4b1cbacked No | 46c | 43.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked No | 58c | 42.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 48c | 39.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 50c | 39.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 47c | 39.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ca28backed No | 51c | 38.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 50c | 36.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 48c | 31.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 51c | 30.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…4fedbacked Yes | 42c | 29.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 80c | 28.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 41c | 27.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 25.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked No | 76c | 24.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 56c | 19.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 55c | 19.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 74c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.