Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aa045e49cd52cbe18a3de8916854ff1b88eaed7ea87d7d7fd3c9dd14682f87c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 34c | 991.24$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.02 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe110…ca16backed Yes | 44c | 671.64$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 541.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 507.9$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 66c | 482.94$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.75 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 467.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 446.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 66c | 353.16$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 57c | 350.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.87 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 36c | 335$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 317.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…0cfdbacked Yes | 37c | 256.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 39c | 239.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 42c | 225.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 220.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 207.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 34c | 205.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 192.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…a633backed Yes | 40c | 182.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 63c | 159.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 18c | 153.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed Yes | 41c | 152.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes | 36c | 146.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 15c | 145.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 62c | 135.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…78d1backed No | 63c | 134.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 35c | 132.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 127.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 79c | 122.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 39c | 121.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 120.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 32c | 111.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 110.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed No | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ed…49d1backed Yes | 36c | 109.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 109.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 104.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 29c | 101.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 60c | 99.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 39c | 99.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 96.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 41c | 94.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 61c | 90.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 37c | 88.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 16c | 84.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…14a7backed Yes | 37c | 83.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 76.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 75.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 22c | 71.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 40c | 71.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 33c | 70.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 64c | 70.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…2847backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 68.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 67.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 36c | 65.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 46c | 64.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 62c | 62.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 78c | 61.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 57.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 46c | 57.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…6c65backed Yes | 22c | 56.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed No | 61c | 55.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 36c | 51.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 63c | 50.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 33c | 49.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed No | 69c | 49.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 66c | 48.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 40c | 44.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 26c | 44.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 35c | 43.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…2a34backed Yes | 43c | 42.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 63c | 42.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 42c | 42.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 59c | 41.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…a952backed Yes | 36c | 39.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 36.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 66c | 36.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5939…e9eebacked Yes | 39c | 36.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…1bacbacked Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 36c | 33.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 67c | 33.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 35c | 32.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 41c | 32.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 39c | 31.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed No | 62c | 30.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 29.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 62c | 29.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 28.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…b884backed No | 66c | 27.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.