Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95e7c17e6b55b55856445a3a0e999966076d3adbdeca80392db18ff65607009e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 3,527$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 25c | 3,114$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.99 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 2,676$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,651.15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 2,648$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,573.84 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 1,963$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 1,497$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,397$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,003$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.69 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 6c | 967.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.83 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 41c | 834.36$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.42 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 832.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.92 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 2c | 543.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.81 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 49c | 530.32$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.64 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 2c | 499.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.47 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 8c | 490$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 474.34$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 3c | 457.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.66 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 77c | 442.4$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 353.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.17 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 3c | 338.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.89 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 337$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 8c | 290.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.22 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…777cbacked Yes | 5c | 276.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +199.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 47c | 201.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 9c | 186.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.83 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 58c | 185.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed Yes | 30c | 185.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 8c | 164.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 19c | 157.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 28c | 142.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 138.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 56c | 134.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 116.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 116.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 43c | 113.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 15c | 110.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec8…c23cbacked Yes | 46c | 108.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +633.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 75c | 104.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 20c | 90.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…2847backed Yes | 48c | 84.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 30c | 84.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 24c | 75.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 40c | 73.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 16c | 72.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 62c | 70.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 16c | 65.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 46c | 59.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed No | 65c | 49.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…7a18backed Yes | 39c | 46.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1954…0166backed No | 59c | 46.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 47c | 38.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 63c | 38.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 46c | 35.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 26.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 65c | 24.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 63c | 22.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed No | 67c | 21.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 53c | 18.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.