Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde20491b7518f8a1daa8103e2344afa4367e116ffd3265a5b14fff61a3db39e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e92…b414backed No | 0c | 14,934$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 10,400$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 55c | 3,512$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.88 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…479abacked No | 6c | 973.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…e615backed No | 19c | 899.9$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…b4f5backed No | 62c | 811.28$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…a93dbacked Yes | 55c | 482.24$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 466.84$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 465.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 64c | 456.77$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.58 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…555abacked No | 3c | 418.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…a177backed No | 3c | 413.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa688…0ad0backed Yes | 43c | 406.2$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 62c | 334.1$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.95 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 327.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed No | 35c | 303.82$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 38c | 303.41$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.98 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 37c | 298.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 288.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 58c | 273.65$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.91 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 269.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 7c | 259.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 243.68$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 242.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.77 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 42c | 225.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.07 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…eed5backed Yes | 37c | 219.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…0b31backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…603bbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…120ebacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…d952backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…8769backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…36a8backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…37aabacked No | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked No | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 31c | 181.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 13c | 161.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 61c | 157.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 25c | 140.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 130.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 129.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 29c | 127.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 50c | 112.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 110.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 42c | 109.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 57c | 100.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…a292backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 66c | 99.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 96.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 40c | 91.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 36c | 89.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 33c | 81.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 80.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 58c | 78.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 67c | 77.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 57c | 76.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 75c | 75.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3c…017bbacked Yes | 31c | 75.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…7f91backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 61c | 74.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced9…9a40backed Yes | 42c | 67.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…9fa8backed No | 60c | 65.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…5259backed Yes | 43c | 65.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 38c | 63.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 27c | 60.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…a952backed Yes | 47c | 60.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 60.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6607…5bd9backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 57.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 54.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 53.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…1f77backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 53c | 47.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 38c | 47.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 58c | 43.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 41.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 39.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 39.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 39c | 37.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 30c | 36.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.