Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d676464e7954540beae15bd9ccd9014a8fd9e3d779f12cf1f8a523e419beb2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x151f…fd4ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,701$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 3,186$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 14c | 675.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 9c | 619.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 3c | 617.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 15c | 593.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 552.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 537.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 77c | 517.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 79c | 478.31$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 12c | 478.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 10c | 452.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 446.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 334.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 77c | 330.82$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 329.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 16c | 309.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 12c | 302.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 14c | 267.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 264.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 11c | 221.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 11c | 216.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 198.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 19c | 188.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 11c | 182.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 26c | 177.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 15c | 176.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 14c | 175.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 166.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…a93dbacked Yes | 8c | 150.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 7c | 145.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 18c | 145.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes | 15c | 136.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 13c | 129.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 8c | 129$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed Yes | 10c | 122.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 120.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 13c | 118.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…d1febacked Yes | 11c | 105.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 15c | 94.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…64a9backed No | 78c | 93.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 15c | 91.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 13c | 83.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 79.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 73.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 24c | 65.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 64.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 79c | 51.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 38.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed No | 75c | 28.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.