Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13fb72e6ec8e9e838d5bb6f6f6b341d91b50e0ab9536b5e1aa17e52da2f0f81c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e92…b414backed Yes | 0c | 13,502$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 9c | 1,495$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 71c | 699.85$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.47 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 75c | 649.61$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 21c | 506.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 474.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 466.26$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 457.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 25c | 439.68$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 378.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 377.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 363.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 299.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 16c | 253.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 246.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 26c | 231.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 194.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 183.2$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes | 23c | 166.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 7c | 162.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 162.15$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 27c | 145.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 144.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked Yes | 23c | 140.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 36c | 128.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 33c | 113.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 104.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 102.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…d20abacked Yes | 29c | 93.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 92.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 89.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 17c | 81.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 76c | 76.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 39c | 72.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3c…017bbacked Yes | 32c | 69.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 25c | 66.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed Yes | 31c | 62.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 28c | 61.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb2…c37cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 23c | 59.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 57.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 27c | 57.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 25c | 56.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 27c | 54.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed Yes | 20c | 51.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 67c | 51.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xced9…9a40backed Yes | 37c | 51.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 70c | 49.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 26c | 49.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 25c | 47.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 28c | 47.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 46.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 30c | 46.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 65c | 45.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…808abacked Yes | 29c | 41.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 32c | 41.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 64c | 37.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed No | 69c | 37.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…05f9backed Yes | 41c | 34.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 34c | 33.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 70c | 32.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 30.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…e868backed No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 71c | 27.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…f190backed No | 74c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…57d6backed No | 71c | 23.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 68c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad6…8bddbacked No | 72c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed No | 66c | 19.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 66c | 19.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 70c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…0fdcbacked No | 74c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.