NBA · resolved market
Spread: Clippers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd29ec7870f523c868c31db289b01451a8309afe8466c75e5d23fe6daa23a2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Clippers, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,136 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1467…4372backed Clippers | 60c | 3,753$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.57 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 40c | 1,557$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.74 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Bucks | 44c | 985.48$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.61 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Clippers | 58c | 938.72$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.86 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 46c | 841.59$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.27 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Clippers | 60c | 833$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.2 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Bucks | 41c | 800.38$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.16 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Bucks | 41c | 731$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.71 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 33c | 720.56$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.49 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 59c | 656$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.94 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Clippers | 54c | 556.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.28 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bucks | 46c | 517.38$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.99 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Clippers | 56c | 475$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Clippers | 57c | 469.44$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.86 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Clippers | 56c | 448.21$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.21 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…7af8backed Bucks | 43c | 355.81$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Clippers | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Clippers | 58c | 339.8$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.72 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Bucks | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 210 | 49.5%104 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bucks | 41c | 232.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3918…b552backed Bucks | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bucks | 43c | 208.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Bucks | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc59…df13backed Bucks | 43c | 113.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed Clippers | 66c | 103.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Clippers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Clippers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Clippers | 60c | 69.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Bucks | 38c | 63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Clippers | 56c | 58.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Clippers | 58c | 45.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 42c | 41.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Clippers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 373 | 44.2%165 W · 208 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Clippers | 57c | 32.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Bucks | 34c | 32.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Clippers | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Bucks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Clippers | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Clippers | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Clippers | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Clippers | 74c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Clippers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-8.5)Clippers won
- Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Bucks vs. ClippersClippers won
- Bucks vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Bucks vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Darius Garland: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- John Collins: Points O/U 14.5No won
- John Collins: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Clippers (-12.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-13.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-14.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.