TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 27.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,999 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed No59c682.93$403 inLost-$402.931,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x095e…b244backed Yes41c682.93$280 inWon+$402.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+92.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No64c547.33$353 inLost-$352.9939265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a8d…150bbacked Yes36c480.5$172 inWon+$308.182846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes34c297.19$100 inWon+$197.1941742%175 W · 242 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No69c253$173 inLost-$173.394,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Yes37c225.09$82 inWon+$142.8736954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked No64c201.99$129 inLost-$129.2877549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Yes15c177.67$27 inWon+$150.3611344.2%50 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed No65c145.86$94 inLost-$94.4515362.1%95 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3590…68f1backed Yes56c88.89$50 inWon+$38.8912548%60 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c06…bbeebacked No63c75$47 inLost-$47.2513448.5%65 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b7…4f3ebacked Yes41c60.3$25 inWon+$35.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0e…0b40backed Yes36c51.67$19 inWon+$33.07862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No43c50$22 inLost-$21.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Yes37c38.1$14 inWon+$23.9717151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3bd…c085backed Yes38c31.31$12 inWon+$19.312560%15 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x376d…bc1bbacked No67c29.85$20 inLost-$209869.4%68 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ee…0f22backed Yes37c27.37$10 inWon+$17.2338736.4%141 W · 246 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.