Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b44bf9753f7ceb3808876bf21839840971d83794664b85d3b1e7496ec4db1a7

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $592,138
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $200,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $592,138 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	30,927$1,505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,505.48	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	28,975$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.65	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	15,173$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.17	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	12,458$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.95	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	11,687$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	9,254$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.92	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	0c	8,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	7c	6,646$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.86	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	6,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	5,267$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.05	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	4c	5,025$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.75	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	5,000$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.69	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	4,981$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.9	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	4,500$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.5	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	4,390$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.32	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	5c	4,044$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	4c	4,027$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.74	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	3,894$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	4c	3,882$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.97	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaca…33a0backed Yes	0c	3,849$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,639$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.63	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,550$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	4c	2,808$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.52	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,588$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.35	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2125…19b8backed Yes	7c	2,500$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.77	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66d8…8258backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	2,364$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.93	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	6c	2,291$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.86	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	2,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b28…5b76backed Yes	7c	2,148$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,032$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.54	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	5c	2,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+114.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	2,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	2,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,771$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.41	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	6c	1,744$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.44	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7db…8aadbacked Yes	6c	1,591$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ef…92edbacked Yes	7c	1,519$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	1,500$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ed…0172backed Yes	7c	1,495$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	1,400$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	1,390$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.97	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	1,372$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	4c	1,369$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.31	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd47a…4e85backed Yes	5c	1,362$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.1	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,360$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	4c	1,321$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.9	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	1,318$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.58	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	1,300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	2c	1,298$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.31	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	2c	1,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefa1…5aa4backed Yes	5c	1,216$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.37	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	6c	1,166$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.12	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	1,152$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	3c	1,151$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.11	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	3c	1,151$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	1,133$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.09	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26c7…264fbacked Yes	2c	1,058$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	6c	1,046$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.23	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	5c	1,013$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.54	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…3b1ebacked Yes	3c	1,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	5c	986.8$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.37	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a1f…d43cbacked Yes	6c	968.48$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	912.9$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.1	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	6c	880.86$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.62	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd28b…fdf5backed Yes	7c	844.65$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.81	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2f…7d5fbacked Yes	7c	844$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3b…98c1backed Yes	4c	807$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.89	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.39per pick	11cpaid	+171.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes	7c	759.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	750.87$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.04	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	750.23$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.76	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	6c	749.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf31…0590backed Yes	2c	749.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	3c	733.52$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.54	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes	6c	715.12$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed Yes	7c	700$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	3c	700$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e6…42a7backed Yes	2c	695$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-56%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcff5…0e8bbacked Yes	3c	685.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.32	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	4c	684.49$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.4	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	4c	659.08$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.99	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes	6c	605.03$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.19	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	5c	604.07$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.38	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb920…0ee7backed Yes	5c	600$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.79	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	3c	600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0617…3070backed Yes	6c	599.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	152	12.5%19 W · 133 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes	6c	599.75$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.51	176	28.4%50 W · 126 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	4c	595.39$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	4c	589.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	3c	578.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	3c	577.13$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc8…f056backed Yes	3c	563$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	3c	525.17$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x279f…5e5bbacked Yes	5c	520.67$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	8c	510.66$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	499.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	6c	499.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event