Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x070ccc3c1bdd451f6e8d5382ff09cdfaa7f916aee610b13b8f3c7124ec0e3e16

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $122,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,489 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	30,368$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.7	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	18,999$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	11,687$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	11,633$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.11	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	8,276$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.1	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	2c	7,093$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.83	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,044$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.1	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	4,587$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.81	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	2c	4,489$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.22	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	3,498$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.58	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	1c	3,221$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.24	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	2,796$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.71	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,544$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.23	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,420$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.23	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,132$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,113$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	2c	2,105$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.31	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,859$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,804$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.2	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	1,785$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	1,765$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.33	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes	2c	1,341$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,334$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	1c	1,323$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	1c	1,250$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb82…7b94backed Yes	1c	1,142$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	958.54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3685…0123backed Yes	1c	886.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	2c	792.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.26	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes	2c	768.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2497…a8f7backed Yes	2c	740.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.38	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3965…5d31backed Yes	2c	632.9$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0352…1d05backed Yes	2c	510.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	2c	425$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	380.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	278.57$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event