Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d8c5dab990f066b3a6d335d07b4b026ab298dd8e429ee014fdc2da343377b4

Rebuilt 39 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $95,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,738 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaac4…c6d1backed Yes	1c	15,138$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98df…59f1backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	11,133$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.7	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e4…e5ecbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	0c	9,675$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.03	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	9,314$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.95	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	8,663$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	8,249$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.46	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	6,631$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.98	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	6,575$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	2c	5,073$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.51	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc366…73cebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…dd2abacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	71	29.6%21 W · 50 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,092$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.83	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,750$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.91	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd832…19b7backed Yes	1c	2,706$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	2c	2,578$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.61	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	2,390$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.2	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	2,205$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.15	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d0…9509backed Yes	4c	2,012$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	3c	1,908$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.61	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9816…833ebacked Yes	4c	1,454$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.39	191	27.7%53 W · 138 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87de…c1e3backed Yes	2c	1,441$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	1,440$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.07	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcff5…0e8bbacked Yes	3c	1,314$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.24	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	1,189$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.33	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	1,133$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed Yes	6c	1,097$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.26	100	36%36 W · 64 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	4c	998.02$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.89	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	4c	997.44$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.88	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	974.06$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.44	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	3c	931.68$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.91	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	860.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.59	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	838$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	6c	832.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	821.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	1c	819.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	819.72$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aec…f062backed Yes	2c	802.96$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e52…074dbacked Yes	2c	754.68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	5c	747.55$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.65	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cea…4ae1backed Yes	3c	738.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f4…4064backed Yes	2c	731.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	4c	668.5$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes	2c	654.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	3c	636.11$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	2c	622.84$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	4c	596.45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.09	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1efe…ac77backed Yes	3c	589.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	99	10.1%10 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	3c	502.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	5c	500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	499.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	4c	479.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa141…d488backed Yes	4c	470.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9efe…68cabacked Yes	4c	463$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	56	25%14 W · 42 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0fc…16b5backed Yes	5c	414.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	104	12.5%13 W · 91 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe433…db89backed Yes	5c	353.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.38	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf1e…8136backed Yes	4c	323.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	248.03$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b41…f7bbbacked Yes	4c	241.81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event