Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacc807909f02f4f73cfc2e1df9143797e7ddbd7013b7b8c16fdb0c904e5270c8

Rebuilt 1 minute ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $456,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $194,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $456,574 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	121,612$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.61	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	18,700$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.54	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca5…cca8backed Yes	0c	17,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2656…36a8backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	8,901$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.89	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaac4…c6d1backed Yes	0c	8,681$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa19a…8545backed Yes	0c	8,611$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	8,177$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.35	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc366…73cebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	4,426$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.6	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	1c	3,148$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.24	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,657$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.97	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	1c	2,596$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,134$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.77	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	3c	1,857$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.09	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,662$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,647$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes	1c	1,568$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.28	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa89f…c1e7backed Yes	1c	1,484$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,360$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	1,279$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf804…8028backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	2c	999.97$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	1c	993.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.71	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	904.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcff5…0e8bbacked Yes	1c	890$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	865.6$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	824.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.37	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	2c	815.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa141…d488backed Yes	2c	803.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	1c	765.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf1e…8136backed Yes	2c	749.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cea…4ae1backed Yes	1c	726.84$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	2c	710.03$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc012…5d52backed Yes	2c	529.02$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	2c	516.95$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd9…7a92backed Yes	4c	471.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.29per pick	43cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	461.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event