Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x982829838133b87d261b0b646de6c32172c24f738d81a82eec40f75e3f918351

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,250,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,250,792 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 537 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	7c	66,320$4,496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,495.66	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	55,208$3,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,153.17	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes	7c	49,954$3,496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,496	84	25%21 W · 63 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	5c	26,622$1,328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,328.03	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	21,213$1,163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,162.72	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	20,913$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.37	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	16,250$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680.94	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	15,903$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979.96	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes	3c	13,334$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.4	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	5c	13,252$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.23	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	12,265$756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$756.04	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	8c	12,119$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,007.93	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa1…256dbacked Yes	1c	11,774$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.24	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	9c	11,670$1,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.64	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	10,609$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.45	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	5c	10,334$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.85	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	2c	9,993$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.55	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	10c	9,972$997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$997.2	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	6c	9,441$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.03	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	9,386$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.6	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	9,189$732 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.34	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	6c	9,122$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.64	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	9,085$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	2c	8,942$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.51	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	6c	7,928$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.21	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb05d…9cfcbacked Yes	7c	7,722$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	7,303$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.32	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	3c	7,281$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.33	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	6c	7,227$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.21	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	7,194$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.85	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes	4c	7,046$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.69	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…c1acbacked Yes	3c	6,816$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.99	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	2c	6,801$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.1	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	5c	6,656$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.61	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	7c	6,640$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.53	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	6,500$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	6c	6,026$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.91	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x63ac…cb23backed Yes	9c	5,825$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	5c	5,744$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.26	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f7…4edbbacked Yes	6c	5,584$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.16	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+83.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,557$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.59	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	6c	5,534$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.4	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	8c	5,461$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.5	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	2c	5,418$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.39	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe132…ca8dbacked Yes	9c	5,100$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.1	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+150%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x760e…119ebacked Yes	8c	5,078$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.21	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	3c	5,027$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.35	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	2c	5,019$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9958…36b9backed Yes	19c	5,000$945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$944.99	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	8c	4,930$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.97	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb104…10c9backed Yes	5c	4,339$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.84	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	8c	4,323$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.76	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	7c	4,316$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.18	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	7c	4,294$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.53	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes	8c	4,254$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.03	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	4,250$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.93	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	22c	4,230$939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.43	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	4,126$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.49	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	6c	4,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.99	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	6c	3,987$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.75	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d9…780cbacked Yes	6c	3,975$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.27	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ef…e1edbacked Yes	7c	3,948$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.07	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	9c	3,823$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.32	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	5c	3,760$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.75	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	2c	3,645$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.26	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes	7c	3,514$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.69	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-84.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	3,490$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.7	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	79c	3,422$2,701 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720.8	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x466b…f89bbacked Yes	4c	3,400$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.46	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes	4c	3,306$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.84	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,297$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.87	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	1c	3,237$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.19	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	6c	3,184$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.37	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	11c	3,118$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55cd…f8d8backed Yes	8c	3,110$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	3,101$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.81	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb29…64f3backed Yes	13c	3,034$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+90.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes	6c	3,033$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	6c	3,012$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.6	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	3c	3,003$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.74	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	8c	3,000$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	3,000$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,985$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.22	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	9c	2,977$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.36	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	9c	2,961$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.36	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	11c	2,838$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.48	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5808…0b74backed Yes	8c	2,799$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.88	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes	6c	2,774$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.99	69	20.3%14 W · 55 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+207.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	2c	2,717$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.32	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+114.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	2,706$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.71	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xea7b…2004backed Yes	7c	2,684$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes	9c	2,658$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.53	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,652$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.73	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes	5c	2,606$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	221	42.5%94 W · 127 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	5c	2,602$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.14	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	77c	2,546$1,957 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$588.71	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	2c	2,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea0…f0dabacked Yes	21c	2,403$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event