Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7459918a48bc8e9c580031ae0da42b91a87ad86cca9241093fdd746059882fab

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $108,377

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,377 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	19,367$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.37	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	10,884$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Yes	2c	10,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.82	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	3cpaid	+78.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	10,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	9,276$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.38	809	11.1%90 W · 719 L	+29.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	1c	7,554$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.63	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes	0c	6,884$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	313	43.1%135 W · 178 L	+20.3wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c42…a7c2backed Yes	1c	4,678$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,672$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.67	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	4,666$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.49	1,041	11%115 W · 926 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	3,659$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.14	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	3,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,995$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.58	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	2,715$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.71	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	1c	2,604$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	1c	2,589$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.72	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,292$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.61	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	1c	2,225$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	366	18.9%69 W · 297 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	2,003$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	298	12.8%38 W · 260 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,798$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,721$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	899	10.2%92 W · 807 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d8…7a22backed Yes	1c	1,700$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	1,489$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.8	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a97…d8a1backed Yes	2c	1,430$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,333$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	1c	1,249$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	1c	1,227$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	1c	1,162$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	999.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	569	5.4%31 W · 538 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7db…8aadbacked Yes	1c	939.81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	872.8$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	212	28.3%60 W · 152 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	1c	871$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43af…7923backed Yes	1c	841.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0352…1d05backed Yes	2c	718.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event