Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa799ade42e7020bf5338bdcb02074a6fd3018d784980fde0fe192dfcc67f340

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,274,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,274,069 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,067 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbb9c…072bbacked No	79c	60,390$47,660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,730.75	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	31c	33,180$10,276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,275.98	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a66…8611backed Yes	0c	27,520$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.58	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+226.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	70c	19,966$13,905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,905.33	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes	8c	18,450$1,466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,466	84	25%21 W · 63 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed No	26c	17,458$4,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,878.18	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	65c	16,772$10,887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,887.44	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	16,507$2,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,121.14	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x015b…68e1backed Yes	0c	16,009$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.02	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	41c	14,224$5,898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,897.93	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	22c	12,840$2,783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,783.15	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	9c	12,062$1,107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,107.09	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1327…0119backed No	42c	10,724$4,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,224.17	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	59cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7c4b…ee55backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	62c	8,495$5,286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,286.3	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	8,423$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	14c	7,549$1,092 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,092.48	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	5c	7,509$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.48	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No	57c	7,228$4,143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,084.98	142	19.7%28 W · 114 L	-11.6wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-46%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	70c	7,008$4,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,926.06	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes	67c	6,937$4,626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,625.98	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	8c	6,781$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.56	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	18c	6,749$1,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,187.45	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	12c	6,429$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.98	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	4c	6,357$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.78	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+114.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	53c	6,283$3,313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,312.61	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	18c	6,149$1,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,122.59	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	34c	6,111$2,104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,104.3	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	60c	5,981$3,593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,592.61	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	35c	5,808$2,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,019.23	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed Yes	2c	5,571$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	49c	5,501$2,687 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,686.5	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5808…0b74backed Yes	19c	5,472$1,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,062.68	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	18c	5,379$992 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$992.23	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	62c	5,243$3,234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,009.01	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30ad…22d6backed No	63c	5,185$3,278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,907.57	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	43c	5,088$2,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,177.45	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	5c	5,000$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.77	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes	0c	4,997$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	68c	4,960$3,365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,365.1	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed No	67c	4,837$3,229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,608.66	100	36%36 W · 64 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	39c	4,810$1,864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,864.31	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	17c	4,447$766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765.5	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	34c	4,122$1,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,407.75	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	58c	4,102$2,392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,391.59	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	6c	4,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	35c	3,915$1,355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,355.28	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Yes	76c	3,821$2,922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,921.73	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	35c	3,632$1,256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,256.15	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	43c	3,566$1,547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,546.76	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bae…ae53backed No	77c	3,539$2,739 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$800.02	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb05d…9cfcbacked Yes	25c	3,404$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$836.56	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	67c	3,307$2,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,210.69	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	29c	3,195$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$938.46	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	16c	3,175$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.15	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	3,084$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.71	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	49c	3,081$1,519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,561.6	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	66c	3,058$2,023 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,022.78	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes	58c	3,018$1,737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,737.1	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd41d…4cf6backed Yes	41c	2,937$1,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202.29	133	21.8%29 W · 104 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	8c	2,876$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.72	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	12c	2,855$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.51	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No	68c	2,827$1,921 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$905.89	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf59…deb0backed No	70c	2,810$1,980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$829.29	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	5c	2,736$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.97	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea0…f0dabacked Yes	46c	2,700$1,248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,247.8	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…e564backed Yes	32c	2,541$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$810.07	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	44c	2,474$1,099 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,375.06	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	54c	2,469$1,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,342.51	195	50.3%98 W · 97 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	32c	2,450$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.69	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	73c	2,445$1,781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$664.76	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	67c	2,405$1,620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$784.78	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes	3c	2,400$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.8	345	15.9%55 W · 290 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	18c	2,398$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.87	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	34c	2,314$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.62	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	13c	2,304$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.17	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	9c	2,284$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.72	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	45c	2,261$1,015 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,015.4	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	11c	2,243$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.93	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes	40c	2,223$887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$886.98	280	34.3%96 W · 184 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6e…0ba6backed Yes	78c	2,204$1,720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,720.34	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	8c	2,182$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.43	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	20c	2,171$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.63	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x760e…119ebacked No	60c	2,164$1,307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$857.18	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No	40c	2,159$864 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,294.13	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a7a…ed96backed Yes	71c	2,150$1,531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,530.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	5c	2,119$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.18	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46a5…64ffbacked Yes	24c	2,080$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	26c	2,072$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.35	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71c2…db9bbacked Yes	74c	2,072$1,542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,542.09	15	60%9 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+62.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes	51c	2,064$1,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,042.6	125	43.2%54 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes	30c	2,056$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.17	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…c1acbacked Yes	21c	2,055$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.25	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67f1…53f1backed Yes	49c	2,027$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$995.44	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes	51c	2,003$1,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,015.94	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ac…cb23backed Yes	44c	1,905$830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830.24	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6370…50a4backed Yes	67c	1,903$1,269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,269.41	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-4.8wins	-0.18per pick	47cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event