Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bc3267ccfa9d9ad8a21d33b659a92edfc502f03cac743a9799be460fe6f97ad

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $186,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,142 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	44,956$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.8	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	24,999$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	24,752$971 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$971.14	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	14,540$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.9	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	12,078$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.67	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	11,687$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	10,421$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.34	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	7,800$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.42	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	7,076$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.53	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	1c	6,110$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.32	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	1c	5,318$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.69	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	5,000$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.18	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,765$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.93	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	3,588$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.89	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	3,547$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.42	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	3,500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	6c	3,440$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	3c	3,329$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.02	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	3,083$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.25	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7db…8aadbacked Yes	4c	2,738$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	2,737$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	2,560$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.97	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,241$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	2,178$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4425…0d21backed Yes	3c	1,906$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.91	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,820$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,767$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.05	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	2c	1,674$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.95	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,631$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	5c	1,500$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.25	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	1,500$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff5…0e8bbacked Yes	2c	1,416$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.94	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2125…19b8backed Yes	5c	1,375$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.69	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	4c	1,223$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.36	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	2c	1,183$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	2c	1,180$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	1,172$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b28…5b76backed Yes	5c	1,089$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	4c	1,082$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.59	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31ef…92edbacked Yes	4c	1,077$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	1,013$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.23	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	3c	1,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…f604backed Yes	4c	999.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	69	34.8%24 W · 45 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	999.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes	2c	983.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	962.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	946.05$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.53	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0679…fcefbacked Yes	1c	898$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	3c	892.54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	2c	838.38$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.62	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x773b…640ebacked Yes	2c	770.32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	61	16.4%10 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	3c	752.26$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes	3c	700$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	699.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	5c	693.42$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.39	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…ae20backed Yes	4c	692$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+173.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes	3c	600.29$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.98	176	28.4%50 W · 126 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0617…3070backed Yes	3c	600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	152	12.5%19 W · 133 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa1…5aa4backed Yes	3c	589.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed Yes	4c	560$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	3c	538.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.43	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	3c	527.65$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.93	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc820…6a28backed Yes	7c	511.06$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.89	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	506.4$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x966e…2ad5backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-85.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0790…34babacked Yes	3c	471.59$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.79	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d6…4dcebacked Yes	4c	451.28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2497…a8f7backed Yes	4c	434.78$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	3c	427.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	3c	413.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4990…5cd5backed Yes	3c	402$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes	7c	400$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	77	14.3%11 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	399.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	3c	396.15$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb70…276dbacked Yes	3c	370.69$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4eeb…25e8backed Yes	3c	368$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0352…1d05backed Yes	4c	345.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.14	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	317.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e87…9b54backed Yes	7c	304.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6e6…3e4fbacked Yes	4c	301$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	6c	291.86$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	6c	275.62$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event