TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bucks, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,389,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,389,368 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 844 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Suns74c108,417$79,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,911.3866248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Suns71c75,047$53,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,140.4120744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bucks18c56,320$10,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,200.1448343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns73c50,735$37,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,091.134,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bucks24c43,999$10,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,645.341,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks30c39,922$11,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,049.725,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd839…8fc8backed Suns72c39,865$28,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,805.555952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Suns72c36,657$26,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,405.165064%32 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Bucks16c30,389$4,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,411.8441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Bucks16c30,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,20054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks29c29,164$8,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,675.651,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fd1…e532backed Suns64c27,748$17,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,813.023268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Bucks26c25,601$6,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,950.7559646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Bucks54c25,400$13,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,744.4414663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9750…263dbacked Bucks45c22,135$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,135.031526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Suns64c21,664$13,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,864.9648352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9948…47e7backed Suns65c21,415$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0001250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c2…39edbacked Bucks15c20,009$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,007.6510635.8%38 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Bucks16c20,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,899.91,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Bucks17c19,983$3,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,585.8532540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks25c19,949$4,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,966.569,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Bucks16c15,988$2,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,430.1437747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Suns46c15,236$7,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,011.811,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed Suns47c14,781$6,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,930.785837.9%22 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Bucks17c14,118$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,717.6515850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Suns64c13,770$8,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,81014738.1%56 W · 91 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Bucks16c13,740$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,541.624053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Bucks37c13,604$5,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,516.429330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks16c13,034$2,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,916.874,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd00…d827backed Bucks42c12,944$5,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,507.53540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Bucks36c12,020$4,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,692.7315044.7%67 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Bucks20c11,948$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,558.3235547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks42c11,765$4,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,802.373,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Suns61c11,457$6,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,994.072,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Suns76c11,141$8,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,424.749244.6%41 W · 51 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Bucks19c10,996$2,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,941.9439349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Suns61c10,824$6,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,637.742348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bucks25c10,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bucks25c10,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Bucks25c10,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Bucks35c10,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,50010743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Bucks21c10,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,899.9938434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Bucks54c9,298$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,297.9917247.7%82 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed Suns7c9,200$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.847412.2%9 W · 65 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Suns69c9,073$6,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,263.6876850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Suns2c9,000$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2085213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Bucks46c8,918$4,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,776.882,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Bucks16c8,538$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,171.54438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Bucks24c8,333$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,333.3312740.9%52 W · 75 L-15.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Suns59c8,197$4,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,840.732,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30d1…cd88backed Suns62c8,000$4,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,993.994151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Bucks16c7,773$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,557.0247043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Suns52c7,659$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00025945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7595…50ffbacked Bucks21c7,652$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,051.3811156.8%63 W · 48 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Suns59c7,590$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50010952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Bucks17c7,292$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,045.9620843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Suns40c7,137$2,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,844.8336023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8436…4c19backed Bucks17c7,000$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8103366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+55.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Bucks17c6,715$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,588.133259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Suns8c6,643$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017246.5%80 W · 92 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bucks36c6,392$2,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,103.885,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bucks17c6,089$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,028.291,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Bucks38c6,038$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,771.4948845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce8b…6bc7backed Suns64c5,781$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7007864.1%50 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Bucks50c5,618$2,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,783.9522457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Suns80c5,600$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,48017554.9%96 W · 79 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bucks16c5,358$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,500.482,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Bucks16c5,332$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,479.217550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13ea…9a8cbacked Bucks18c5,041$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,134.654153.7%22 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0354…be83backed Suns33c5,034$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.911136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Bucks17c5,000$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,15025947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb8b…95cbbacked Bucks16c5,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.981346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Bucks41c4,900$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,89127251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Bucks55c4,811$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,150.7717042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa11c…0dbebacked Suns67c4,675$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.59771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…b386backed Bucks29c4,567$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,253.783946.2%18 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+24.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Bucks27c4,371$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,206.3726353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Bucks16c4,225$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,549.1227241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed Suns48c4,173$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Suns64c4,063$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60013642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Bucks25c4,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.9813534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46bc…2d14backed Bucks25c3,997$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,997.9918931.2%59 W · 130 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Bucks27c3,865$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,824.7925226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Suns68c3,799$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,592.278451.2%43 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Bucks17c3,700$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,07120537.1%76 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Bucks34c3,564$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.4642153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Bucks16c3,500$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,94047028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Suns0c3,421$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.678820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bucks12c3,406$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,995.721,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b4…7730backed Suns3c3,321$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112300%0 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bucks38c3,320$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,058.441,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c8…90cbbacked Suns80c3,281$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,624.765244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67cc…942fbacked Bucks17c3,124$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,592.534845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c51…087cbacked Bucks16c3,121$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,621.641540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f9…f569backed Bucks16c3,101$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601.21838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Suns4c3,050$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks28c3,026$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.18,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Suns41c2,980$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.448043.8%35 W · 45 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Bucks40c2,900$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.315274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcb27…b605backed Suns60c2,895$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.6511343.4%49 W · 64 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.