NBA · resolved market

Spread: Suns (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecab6b4e7e129ecdd89fdb27755dbc755d9fbf19321aed202fd23a7a055185ce

Rebuilt 41 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Suns, Bucks
Resolved: Mar 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $82,304

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,304 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Bucks	47c	36,321$17,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,250.9	545	39.6%216 W · 329 L	-28.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Suns	53c	30,392$16,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,200	114	57.9%66 W · 48 L	+6.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns	53c	14,224$7,477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,476.82	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bucks	47c	13,431$6,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,150.96	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks	46c	9,309$4,287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,022.75	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Suns	52c	6,000$3,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,119.97	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Suns	55c	5,472$3,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,006.83	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53f5…078abacked Bucks	47c	4,877$2,292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,584.81	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	51cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa526…2fe7backed Suns	53c	2,190$1,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,160.7	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks	46c	2,016$936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,079.49	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb3a…b5f1backed Suns	53c	1,855$983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$983.15	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Suns	54c	1,530$826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$826	144	55.6%80 W · 64 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Suns	54c	1,526$824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824	193	59.6%115 W · 78 L	+14.1wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Suns	52c	1,154$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Suns	50c	1,095$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	591	40.8%241 W · 350 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Suns	53c	1,024$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.98	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82e3…ce50backed Suns	53c	832$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.96	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Suns	53c	814$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.42	169	53.3%90 W · 79 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns	17c	668.27$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.2	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Bucks	49c	612.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.24	187	48.1%90 W · 97 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Suns	58c	609.72$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.35	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bucks	45c	589.59$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$323.13	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Bucks	48c	493$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.36	238	50.4%120 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Bucks	59c	423.73$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.73	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ae…3615backed Bucks	78c	410$319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.5	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Bucks	47c	405$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.65	95	58.9%56 W · 39 L	+13.3wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Suns	53c	377.36$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	260	48.1%125 W · 135 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Suns	53c	377.36$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Suns	38c	263.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	167	25.7%43 W · 124 L	-12.4wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Suns	70c	257.76$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.51	432	69.2%299 W · 133 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	67cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Bucks	46c	250.01$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.01	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bucks	45c	250$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.5	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Suns	46c	227.53$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.86	452	51.1%231 W · 221 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Bucks	47c	179$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.54	775	49.2%381 W · 394 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks	45c	163.33$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.26	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb81f…2fd6backed Bucks	47c	151$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.03	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec38…ca10backed Bucks	47c	151$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.03	110	50.9%56 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Bucks	46c	145.35$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.49	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Suns	53c	143.9$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.84	154	46.8%72 W · 82 L	-12.0wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Suns	36c	139.73$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	574	44.1%253 W · 321 L	-20.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a2e…3ef0backed Suns	54c	138.89$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	263	45.6%120 W · 143 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Suns	52c	135.39$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.74	890	48.8%434 W · 456 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Bucks	47c	130$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.9	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	+29.4wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bucks	44c	126.82$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.82	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Bucks	36c	125.15$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.93	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Bucks	48c	122.44$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.67	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Suns	53c	119.11$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.13	917	46.9%430 W · 487 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x911d…2438backed Suns	53c	118.87$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Bucks	48c	109$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.68	168	45.2%76 W · 92 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns	36c	106.84$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.06	1,190	32%381 W · 809 L	-58.1wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Bucks	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	660	46.4%306 W · 354 L	-21.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Bucks	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	288	52.1%150 W · 138 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bucks	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0617…3070backed Suns	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde51…b01ebacked Bucks	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Suns	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	970	49.5%480 W · 490 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Suns	54c	95.5$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.57	98	54.1%53 W · 45 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x391c…ea3fbacked Suns	53c	95.09$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-4.8wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x45d2…22fbbacked Suns	53c	93.49$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	113	48.7%55 W · 58 L	-5.7wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9dc…038ebacked Bucks	47c	91.03$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	65	50.8%33 W · 32 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88a0…f673backed Bucks	48c	91$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.32	66	53%35 W · 31 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Suns	56c	91$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.96	1,888	37.3%704 W · 1,184 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb920…0ee7backed Suns	65c	77.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.31	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Bucks	59c	77$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.57	342	47.7%163 W · 179 L	-8.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Bucks	48c	74$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.48	162	45.1%73 W · 89 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x522c…9290backed Suns	44c	56.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Bucks	46c	52.19$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.25	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bucks	48c	51.25$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.75	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbce5…cc57backed Bucks	49c	50.51$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.76	47	63.8%30 W · 17 L	+6.3wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+25%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0435…cf1dbacked Suns	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	169	47.3%80 W · 89 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd18b…876dbacked Suns	60c	41.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	113	56.6%64 W · 49 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca38…b6d0backed Bucks	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2225…1838backed Bucks	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	86	52.3%45 W · 41 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…8acabacked Bucks	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	143	44.1%63 W · 80 L	+9.8wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe49a…f498backed Suns	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Suns	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	231	45.9%106 W · 125 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Suns	52c	32.62$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	672	48.8%328 W · 344 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Bucks	47c	32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.07	200	40%80 W · 120 L	-15.3wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6acc…b759backed Bucks	47c	31.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.91	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4168…a631backed Suns	54c	30.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.47	121	46.3%56 W · 65 L	-6.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabb3…c184backed Bucks	65c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde58…b901backed Suns	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Bucks	47c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.72	321	48.3%155 W · 166 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Bucks	60c	20.82$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.33	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Suns	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	243	34.2%83 W · 160 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09d…d23fbacked Bucks	70c	16.98$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.02	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Suns (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event