NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Suns: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd63aad73acdfcae39eb484dea57539b3a44d4804f3daa7c2171705c3b1917b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,535 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f45…a321backed Over | 50c | 21,807$10,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,907.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 50c | 19,200$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 2,310$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.63 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 1,781$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 1,369$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.97 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Under | 50c | 1,334$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 884.15$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Under | 50c | 850.34$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.17 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 73c | 800.85$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.25 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 723$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.64 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 26c | 495.51$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 75c | 316.78$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 49c | 290$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 47c | 282.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.01 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 49c | 255.11$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.11 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Under | 73c | 176.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 49c | 150.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 49c | 145$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 75c | 125.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Over | 25c | 125.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7291…3d0fbacked Over | 29c | 94.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…3389backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 26c | 46.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 42c | 37.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 77c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 73c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Suns: O/U 218.5this page
- Bucks vs. SunsBucks won
- Bucks vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Suns: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Suns: O/U 216.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Suns: O/U 217.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Suns: O/U 219.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Suns: O/U 220.5Under won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Suns (-11.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.