Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcb98a920dd357f4cbe330deee1902fc5f26f659a4378bac335d535f605d0a27

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $449,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $449,046 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	32,363$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.18	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	24,531$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.21	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	0c	22,670$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.41	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	20,066$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.09	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	19,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	17,592$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6af…0be4backed Yes	0c	16,265$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.53	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	16,040$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.14	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	15,020$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.71	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	13,664$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.31	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	1c	13,219$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.53	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	12,852$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.47	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	0c	12,206$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.44	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	1c	11,521$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.3	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes	1c	11,458$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.91	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	10,989$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes	0c	10,228$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	38	0%0 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	1c	9,119$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.35	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	8,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47c6…42d8backed Yes	1c	8,219$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	1c	7,454$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.19	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	7,250$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.58	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	7,192$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.67	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	1c	6,896$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.44	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	2c	6,429$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.16	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	2c	6,010$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.76	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes	0c	5,855$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.69	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ae…ef9cbacked Yes	0c	5,617$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	5,599$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.41	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	5,051$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	4,441$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.36	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	6c	4,401$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.34	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	3c	3,775$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.76	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	3c	3,567$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.57	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed Yes	0c	3,497$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-64%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	3,431$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.26	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33cc…1dc5backed Yes	1c	3,067$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.07	50	32%16 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	2,987$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d69…01aebacked Yes	1c	2,925$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05aa…e3c3backed Yes	0c	2,912$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+201.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	0c	2,901$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb461…55ecbacked Yes	2c	2,723$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.45	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,631$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.99	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,559$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5dd…e40cbacked Yes	9c	2,522$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.22	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18e1…52dcbacked Yes	10c	2,454$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-88.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0790…34babacked Yes	1c	2,380$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c57…47aabacked Yes	1c	2,255$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	2,194$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.57	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,175$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.73	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	6c	2,062$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.48	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0352…1d05backed Yes	1c	2,028$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,013$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	2,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.02	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	10c	2,000$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.27	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd3…f0efbacked Yes	7c	1,920$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.69	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	4c	1,909$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.5	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	1,787$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.02	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,786$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	5c	1,766$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.71	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	1,766$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.66	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,750$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.13	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	1c	1,633$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71b0…dddfbacked Yes	1c	1,594$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes	11c	1,560$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.22	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	4c	1,500$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	4c	1,479$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.73	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	1c	1,301$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	1,261$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.27	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3685…0123backed Yes	2c	1,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,234$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.68	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	1,198$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.38	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	2c	1,195$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	8c	1,179$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.71	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	5c	1,172$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.39	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	1,160$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.03	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34b8…523cbacked Yes	1c	1,132$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	2cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	10c	1,129$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.12	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c4…953cbacked Yes	2c	1,112$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	9c	1,091$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.26	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	1,068$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	6c	1,043$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.3	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,025$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	1,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	3c	990.33$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.7	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	7c	946.39$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.77	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	1c	927.19$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	800$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes	6c	787.09$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	89	18%16 W · 73 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	6c	777.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3254…c373backed Yes	10c	764$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.69	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+60.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x677a…37a8backed Yes	6c	738$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event