TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,739 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7091…af26backed Yes1c21,248$130 inLost-$129.9513817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes0c20,000$30 inLost-$30512%1 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+107.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c18,534$49 inLost-$48.734568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0352…1d05backed Yes0c15,200$20 inLost-$19.71336.1%2 W · 31 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes0c14,410$29 inLost-$28.82170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes0c12,063$36 inLost-$36.3832613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c11,457$46 inLost-$45.93281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes0c11,159$23 inLost-$23.482317.4%17 W · 214 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$11382.6%1 W · 37 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick0cpaid+2,531.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c10,129$11 inLost-$10.79710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c4…4622backed Yes0c5,653$20 inLost-$19.99120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c5,366$14 inLost-$14.471,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes1c4,399$22 inLost-$225909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes0c4,373$11 inLost-$10.9282711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26f1…d8fbbacked Yes1c4,091$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes1c4,078$21 inLost-$21.391,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c2,071$12 inLost-$121,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes1c1,838$12 inLost-$121249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3409…7864backed Yes2c1,740$36 inLost-$35.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4077…7434backed Yes1c1,306$10 inLost-$10.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.