Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x416ed4b25bfa33c6b9cd683c557637ccb9becbc699ab89c980c28e04250ba6c1

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $120,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,549 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	16,629$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.49	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc595…df4cbacked Yes	0c	14,465$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.99	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	13,733$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.94	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0698…a4d6backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	10,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	5,161$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.06	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	4,243$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.49	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	3,829$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.79	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	5c	1,631$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.79	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	1c	1,582$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	9c	1,576$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.69	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	1,567$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	4c	1,513$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.42	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	11c	1,438$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbd…4c05backed Yes	1c	1,385$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	5c	1,291$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.84	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,188$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.91	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	2c	1,129$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.47	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	9c	1,117$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.75	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f2b…6a52backed Yes	1c	1,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,049$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.07	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,030$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4243…47a8backed Yes	10c	999.51$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.16	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	4c	965.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.8	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes	10c	925.08$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.49	87	12.6%11 W · 76 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	12c	916.67$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a19…c9d9backed Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f73…dbfbbacked Yes	10c	882.8$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd10…32e8backed Yes	12c	842.92$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	+28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	808.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	779.57$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.94	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	9c	731.26$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.81	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked Yes	11c	656.65$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.3	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	5c	602.97$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.03	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	9c	600$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes	9c	599.96$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	11c	527.78$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	8c	503.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.3	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4f…54e2backed Yes	9c	500$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c19…f4b7backed Yes	11c	499.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	5c	495.49$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e3…8796backed Yes	9c	477.53$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3044…86f0backed Yes	8c	454$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.32	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-49%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0106…0e63backed Yes	11c	452.66$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-60%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	10c	424.67$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.72	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes	11c	342.86$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb233…8b03backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24c6…5587backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes	7c	284.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5712…2bc6backed Yes	9c	276.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x313e…8c64backed Yes	13c	252.32$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf2…15aebacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc47b…9843backed Yes	9c	226.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fed…f789backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	9c	210.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba3…33e0backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+5.7wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	9c	199$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf1e…8136backed Yes	10c	193.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	8c	193$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa8…cd1ebacked Yes	11c	183.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac12…7f97backed Yes	12c	173.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87c4…f978backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb8f…79d1backed Yes	10c	163.54$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3075…5adabacked Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	10c	147.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed Yes	11c	133.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	150	21.3%32 W · 118 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c9…bf73backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fc…a83bbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a44…0196backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf669…98a5backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3007…8f81backed Yes	13c	120$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3986…0c06backed Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+90%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…a26bbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a95…23cfbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	95	11.6%11 W · 84 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event