Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08daa4ee2bf8c35563bfd0413aff48c03f89a880577b6e56560b498c4d26675e

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,746

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,746 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	8,906$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.48	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6037…7e95backed Yes	0c	8,293$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	4,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	2,556$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.87	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	2c	2,418$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.15	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,271$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.44	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,259$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.1	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	2,152$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	2,042$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.03	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,606$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.79	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	2c	1,489$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.09	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes	4c	1,293$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.89	84	20.2%17 W · 67 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	3c	1,287$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	2c	1,200$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a82…68e8backed Yes	2c	1,157$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.96	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	3c	1,124$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.26	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdae2…0ddebacked Yes	4c	1,074$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+3.6wins	+0.19per pick	23cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,069$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.35	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,047$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	4c	990.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.72	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	926.42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	900$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.32	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	893.68$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	805.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e8…79f8backed Yes	4c	803.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	664.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes	5c	599.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x185f…aa9dbacked Yes	3c	476.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8459…fa4abacked Yes	2c	462.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3159…5f35backed Yes	6c	443.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed Yes	4c	347.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	150	21.3%32 W · 118 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…9a43backed Yes	3c	309.45$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c6…5587backed Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7684…15c4backed Yes	4c	274$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	4c	256.69$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…0c06backed Yes	4c	247.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+90%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event