Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c5346f1d8ccfe86e043732e736c74fafcaef342f6ec6d409f96f84ff442a22

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $153,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,637 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	24,189$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes	1c	14,907$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.35	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	11,687$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,221$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0352…1d05backed Yes	0c	11,024$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	9,567$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.01	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b74…8186backed Yes	0c	8,255$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88e0…0198backed Yes	0c	8,255$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe77b…8171backed Yes	0c	7,938$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	7,565$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.93	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,889$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.15	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	6,745$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.72	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	5,689$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.23	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca42…2624backed Yes	1c	4,366$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	4,100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.62	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	3,936$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.38	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x547e…9ea0backed Yes	1c	3,875$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e32…949ebacked Yes	1c	3,875$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	1c	3,871$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.64	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5e…1defbacked Yes	1c	3,384$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc595…df4cbacked Yes	1c	3,330$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.56	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,389$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18e1…52dcbacked Yes	2c	2,353$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-88.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,121$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,051$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,981$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,743$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,681$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	1c	1,600$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…c878backed Yes	1c	1,564$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8e…39b0backed Yes	1c	1,444$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	39	7.7%3 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-28%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f52…3785backed Yes	1c	1,166$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	76	18.4%14 W · 62 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54cc…a28fbacked Yes	2c	1,155$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.53	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	1c	1,031$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+109.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event