Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bba787435ba86f1c906c6f84705188b09e216388361849740f3501d5dc00c5f

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $99,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,887 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	10,665$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	10,631$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.36	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	10,275$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.88	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	5,861$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.06	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc81…be46backed Yes	1c	5,013$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe9…9bf7backed Yes	0c	4,104$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	3,654$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.39	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	3,033$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	3c	2,778$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.68	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,227$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.41	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	3c	2,084$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.89	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	2,040$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.91	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	3c	1,900$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.4	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	4c	1,484$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.82	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	7c	1,336$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	3c	1,332$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.83	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	2c	1,147$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	1,138$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.99	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a82…68e8backed Yes	3c	1,121$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.63	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,099$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.58	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,076$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.74	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,050$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	6c	1,050$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.57	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b95…3fc7backed Yes	10c	1,031$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+210.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	986.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb8f…79d1backed Yes	2c	976.82$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	927.46$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes	6c	880.48$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.01	84	20.2%17 W · 67 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	3c	759.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes	4c	757.4$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-90%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	2c	600$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes	7c	599.98$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	545.7$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.27	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9411…c76dbacked Yes	7c	540.54$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66d9…3146backed Yes	10c	498.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+66.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes	7c	493.31$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.27	87	12.6%11 W · 76 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	4c	466.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13bf…544ebacked Yes	3c	421.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	8cpaid	+162.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	3c	417.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e8…79f8backed Yes	7c	380.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0da…8288backed Yes	5c	371.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5712…2bc6backed Yes	7c	362$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24c6…5587backed Yes	8c	362$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.03	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	5c	347.27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf1e…8136backed Yes	4c	319.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ada…9cc2backed Yes	8c	300.25$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4982…fe01backed Yes	7c	276.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	115	29.6%34 W · 81 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3159…5f35backed Yes	8c	273.69$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes	7c	272.94$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	5c	262.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.24	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	7c	207.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	6c	178.38$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event