TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,100 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9980…6674backed Yes0c10,170$31 inLost-$30.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c6,381$21 inLost-$21.323281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes1c4,004$39 inLost-$39.151,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2a…65afbacked Yes1c4,004$28 inLost-$28.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6368…172fbacked Yes1c4,000$32 inLost-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes1c2,798$29 inLost-$29.361565.8%9 W · 147 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+58%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes1c2,390$34 inLost-$34.05476.4%3 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c2,258$21 inLost-$21.021,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c2,089$16 inLost-$15.885535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes1c1,801$23 inLost-$23.081249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c1,781$17 inLost-$16.567304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c1,773$24 inLost-$23.992,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c1,570$28 inLost-$28.111,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dfa…e524backed Yes2c1,500$30 inLost-$30185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick2cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x185f…aa9dbacked Yes3c1,226$40 inLost-$4090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43af…7923backed Yes1c1,117$10 inLost-$10195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-85.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Yes2c1,100$26 inLost-$26.42626.9%7 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+210.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes1c1,020$10 inLost-$10.041157.8%9 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a44…0196backed Yes2c962.33$20 inLost-$203611.1%4 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c928.99$15 inLost-$15.081,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes2c878.91$17 inLost-$175598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes2c600$13 inLost-$12.64626.1%12 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdae2…0ddebacked Yes3c518.79$16 inLost-$161942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick23cpaid+27.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.