Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x960d6a09b40f33bb753bd042a1c7db1a349fcc5c3ca0cec81a18c3a732a493a1

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $103,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,706 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0dab…6f48backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	9,290$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.89	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	0c	9,211$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	7,330$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.73	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	7,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	4,486$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.51	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	4,005$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.59	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked Yes	6c	3,665$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae17…299cbacked Yes	0c	2,558$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	5c	2,332$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.42	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	2,267$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.51	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	4c	1,869$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.52	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	1,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes	7c	1,385$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-90%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	1,360$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.97	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	11c	1,260$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.87	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	9c	1,070$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,059$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	10c	1,028$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	9c	996.42$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.06	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	8c	980.5$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.06	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe380…70e2backed Yes	2c	930.45$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7022…cfbdbacked Yes	11c	900.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	19cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3044…86f0backed Yes	6c	772.34$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.93	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-49%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes	10c	675.69$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.86	87	12.6%11 W · 76 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	675$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.7	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	4c	665.71$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	632.43$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes	8c	600.34$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.78	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	10c	592.83$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c6…5587backed Yes	9c	579.19$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.16	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	8c	505.51$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7684…15c4backed Yes	10c	430.04$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.57	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e21…cb3ebacked Yes	6c	393.17$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	5c	370.46$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5712…2bc6backed Yes	7c	349.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	5c	344.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.82	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	6c	336.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes	6c	331.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	325.05$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	6c	325$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	8c	290.18$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.04	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf1e…8136backed Yes	6c	234$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	7c	230.61$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b95…3fc7backed Yes	9c	224.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	8c	210.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	5c	205$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba3…33e0backed Yes	10c	200.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+5.7wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e73…ea15backed Yes	7c	200.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	8c	178.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3075…5adabacked Yes	7c	169.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fed…f789backed Yes	9c	167.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes	10c	155.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3242…9712backed Yes	10c	96.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8de7…4fd0backed Yes	11c	95.09$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+681.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event