Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44dfbe974c8104bf8d914bc3f92b5eb26b6dc7ecf1a335535c30e719d5c60abe

Rebuilt 21 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $650,583

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $650,583 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	37,276$1,232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,231.99	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62aa…df3bbacked Yes	2c	31,568$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	20,522$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.56	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	13c	20,000$2,597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,596.94	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	18,480$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	17,933$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.91	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes	1c	14,659$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.61	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	0c	13,834$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.59	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	13,098$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	13,063$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.2	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	11,666$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes	2c	11,110$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.42	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	10c	9,659$1,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.46	75	36%27 W · 48 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	0c	9,550$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.26	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	1c	9,430$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.93	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	2c	9,195$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.33	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	9,006$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.24	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	2c	8,116$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.82	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	7,998$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.77	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	5c	7,500$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.71	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	7,340$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.02	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	7,136$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.4	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	2c	7,088$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes	15c	6,900$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.49	84	25%21 W · 63 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa657…00bfbacked Yes	0c	6,609$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes	1c	6,436$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	6,430$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc360…2b34backed Yes	1c	6,100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.9	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	2c	5,583$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.57	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	5c	5,509$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.21	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	7c	5,499$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.85	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f4…678fbacked Yes	9c	5,478$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.47	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	0c	5,130$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	5,100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes	1c	5,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x395a…a05dbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	5,000$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.95	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	5c	4,701$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.08	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	4,386$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	13c	4,375$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.47	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ea…34dfbacked Yes	4c	4,187$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.51	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc694…5d40backed Yes	1c	4,100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	4,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.9	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,702$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.01	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9406…4750backed Yes	10c	3,423$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.15	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	2c	3,396$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	3,377$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.21	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	6c	3,234$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.06	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	3,194$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.66	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…42d8backed Yes	2c	3,141$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	2,984$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.15	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	3c	2,971$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.64	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf42…c14fbacked Yes	1c	2,822$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…6aa4backed Yes	2c	2,791$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.45	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	2,707$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb8fd…2863backed Yes	6c	2,631$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.87	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	5c	2,598$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.05	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	2,580$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.51	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,461$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.28	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes	1c	2,343$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	210	34.8%73 W · 137 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes	12c	2,315$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.74	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	1c	2,294$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.94	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	2,272$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.49	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,242$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33cc…1dc5backed Yes	2c	2,189$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.48	50	32%16 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes	1c	2,161$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.53	62	22.6%14 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	17c	2,100$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	6c	2,099$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.62	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	8c	2,075$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.58	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	14c	2,000$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.58	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f23…6d15backed Yes	1c	1,911$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,876$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	8c	1,816$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.06	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d69…01aebacked Yes	2c	1,814$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	13c	1,766$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.43	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd82f…39a7backed Yes	1c	1,705$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7094…2c4dbacked Yes	2c	1,684$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.22	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes	2c	1,651$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	1,627$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c20…1609backed Yes	12c	1,622$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce2…231dbacked Yes	12c	1,622$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	1,590$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.59	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5dd…e40cbacked Yes	16c	1,543$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc47b…9843backed Yes	2c	1,537$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	1c	1,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	1,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	1,500$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a1f…d43cbacked Yes	5c	1,472$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	3c	1,466$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.97	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed Yes	1c	1,424$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	1c	1,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	10c	1,399$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.42	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes	3c	1,364$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.14	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	3c	1,350$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.18	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	1,350$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.74	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	1,320$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.31	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event