Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x488c6d2891fc5945b068c6d7baa7fc76db0470fd206ce31ba2ac7e696b338414

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $240,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,193 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	0c	49,636$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.97	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	34,280$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.56	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	30,160$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	24,113$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.74	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	20,006$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes	0c	19,695$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	38	0%0 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes	0c	18,584$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	47	0%0 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	18,217$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.33	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes	0c	17,419$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	54	0%0 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	14,965$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	11,687$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	0c	10,959$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.22	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	10,160$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.29	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes	0c	10,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fda…6c62backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	9,961$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.39	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes	1c	9,292$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.52	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0352…1d05backed Yes	0c	8,778$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.08	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	0c	5,974$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fd…1236backed Yes	1c	5,891$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	5,786$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc81…be46backed Yes	1c	5,016$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05aa…e3c3backed Yes	0c	4,700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+201.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	4,180$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.75	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	4,123$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.3	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	4,009$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.08	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	4,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.79	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d69…01aebacked Yes	0c	3,666$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	1c	3,479$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3e…2b09backed Yes	0c	3,374$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	3,185$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.44	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,154$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.61	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	3,128$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.01	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	2,908$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.14	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	2,750$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,266$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.84	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdabf…7291backed Yes	1c	2,209$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaccb…e16fbacked Yes	1c	2,209$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6552…b256backed Yes	4c	2,007$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	2,000$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.47	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3685…0123backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,801$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,720$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.41	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes	2c	1,626$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.78	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,501$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…7e7cbacked Yes	1c	1,473$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	1c	1,392$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a48…e362backed Yes	1c	1,259$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,252$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	1,206$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.33	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	1,046$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,002$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	1c	990.57$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.67	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+109.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	2c	973.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	2c	941.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes	4c	813.16$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e2…e3fdbacked Yes	2c	715$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0e…d2d3backed Yes	2c	714$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	695.15$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.62	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f52…3785backed Yes	2c	690.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	76	18.4%14 W · 62 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b33…efd0backed Yes	3c	464.17$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes	3c	457.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	2c	426.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba66…79d8backed Yes	3c	399.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	115	19.1%22 W · 93 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c9…0bc5backed Yes	3c	382$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event