TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe5fc…a83b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Serie A, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 56 out of 100; worst Cricket at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Tennis — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Murcia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Kimmer Coppejansbacked Pablo Carreno Busta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$4.91
Zadar: Matej Dodig vs Stefano Travagliabacked Stefano Travaglia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+68.2%+$6.92
Miami Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex de Minaurbacked Alex de Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Miami Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Anastasia Zakharovabacked Anna Kalinskaya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Murcia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Pablo Carreno Busta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+67.7%+$7.45
Miami Open, Qualification: Jay Clarke vs Shintaro Mochizukibacked Shintaro Mochizuki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Hersonissos 2: Paul Jubb vs Maxim Mrvabacked Paul Jubb · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Kigali: Joel Schwaerzler vs Stefano Napolitanobacked Joel Schwaerzler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
BNP Paribas Open: Ugo Humbert vs Alex Michelsenbacked Ugo Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.63
BNP Paribas Open: Sebastian Baez vs Jiri Leheckabacked Jiri Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Hersonissos: Menelaos Efstathiou vs Alejandro Moro Canasbacked Alejandro Moro Canas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Hersonissos: Alex Rybakov vs Jacopo Berrettinibacked Jacopo Berrettini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Kigali: Jonas Forejtek vs Luka Mikrutbacked Luka Mikrut · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+40.8%+$6.13
Lugano: Maxim Mrva vs Zsombor Pirosbacked Zsombor Piros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+35.1%+$3.64
Oeiras 2: Viktorija Golubic vs Teodora Kostovicbacked Golubic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.83
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Belinda Bencic vs Jessica Bouzas Maneirobacked Maneiro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$11.58
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Gabriela Rusebacked Ruse · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+41.5%+$6.23
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Petra Marcinkobacked Sasnovich · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Open Sud de France: Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Busta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Open Sud de France: Titouan Droguet vs Aleksandar Kovacevicbacked Kovacevic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Clara Tauson vs McCartney Kesslerbacked Tauson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+66.7%+$26.67
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sonay Kartal vs Sara Bejlekbacked Bejlek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+40.8%+$49.01
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.69
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Pelicans vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+66.2%+$9.27
Knicks vs. Nuggetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+31.6%+$4.42
Trail Blazers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+66.7%+$9.33
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$6.67
76ers vs. Lakersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$59
Hornets vs. Rocketsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+35.5%+$14.21
Jazz vs. Hawksbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+58.7%+$11.75
Cavaliers vs. Clippersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+31.6%+$4.11
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Pelicans vs. Bucksbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Suns vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
76ers vs. Warriorsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$48.04
Jazz vs. Pacersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+31.6%+$6
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$39
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$118
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+156.7%+$47
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+528.9%+$105.79
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+53.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Serie A — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick64cpaid-75%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Cricket — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maple Leafs vs. Oilersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+56.3%+$7.31
Capitals vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+26.6%+$7.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
The Ring - High Stakes: Ryan Garcia vs. Mario Barriosbacked Garcia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google say "Gemini 3" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "ICE" be said at the Grammys?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.