TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-03-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$398,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,009 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Yes55c52,897$29,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,050.573,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked No30c14,613$4,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,181.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+44.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed No33c10,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,699.96887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick48cpaid+86.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe133…74dcbacked Yes12c8,532$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No46c7,952$3,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,305.1375142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0c…04b6backed Yes64c5,771$3,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,721.62650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…d4bfbacked No70c4,285$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.51283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes13c3,729$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.9876234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked No33c3,480$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.524839.6%19 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92d8…9762backed No35c3,323$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.834447.7%21 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+260.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed No31c2,807$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.8410641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No45c2,799$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.8514315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf24…15ecbacked No65c2,695$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.125056%28 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes41c2,639$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.2544655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No34c2,571$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.0353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Yes80c2,511$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.811741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No41c2,384$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.191,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c7d…5a77backed Yes12c2,230$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes12c1,900$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22856547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes40c1,794$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.231,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d22…ec35backed Yes58c1,690$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes43c1,667$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.330647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…7e41backed No24c1,667$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.671163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+41.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes11c1,650$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.463438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Yes12c1,640$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.791421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed No34c1,488$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.412142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x203d…2b2cbacked Yes73c1,355$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.12650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0463…46fdbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd196…cbb8backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…6d3bbacked No36c991.67$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.67850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes34c979.9$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.439646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0e…fd24backed Yes76c827.17$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.33366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed No40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked No46c712.67$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.844643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x852d…c3dfbacked Yes72c694.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d50…436fbacked Yes73c684.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked No34c673.53$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.535044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No72c658.63$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3511356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b5…8ccfbacked Yes67c597.01$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Yes61c557$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.6318644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36048658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No61c469.19$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.769532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2dc8…47d0backed Yes32c460.64$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.42475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed No33c454.55$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.551050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No68c431$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06f…64fcbacked Yes69c422.42$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c29…87dcbacked Yes27c417.74$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.791353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+147.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed No50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001573.3%11 W · 4 L+6.2wins+0.41per pick32cpaid+151.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x797e…fc29backed Yes11c390.91$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No42c364.39$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.7624541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed Yes34c355.89$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.055964.4%38 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yes35c353.73$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5316046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes56c339.1$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No44c319.01$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.172,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes27c314.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0517652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x934c…d02bbacked Yes64c311.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.551233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb263…6275backed No29c306.03$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…f879backed Yes33c305.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d2…8320backed No33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.03977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3616045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3619446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed No59c297.38$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0412141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked No68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.121553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f9…eb5fbacked Yes69c291.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1968…545fbacked Yes70c285.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9bb…4066backed Yes70c285.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…19e9backed Yes12c273.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.833426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Yes11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0592…49aabacked No58c270$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.68771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbefe…2d45backed Yes27c269.56$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.782552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24cb…1f0cbacked Yes75c266.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb9…afbbbacked Yes75c266.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc677…ac6abacked Yes12c265$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf591…39c8backed Yes61c258.21$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3670%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes77c250$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.510251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked No33c240.24$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.966439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No38c230.76$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7739857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa743…7300backed No36c211.11$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed No46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1653…24b0backed Yes65c195.78$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.261464.3%9 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab20…e6a0backed Yes60c193.43$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x412c…2d87backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f8…a606backed Yes39c180.96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6070…88a8backed No46c176.9$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.551258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3129…22edbacked Yes59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Yes61c159.56$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4217749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa209…d90ebacked Yes43c155.32$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.263145.2%14 W · 17 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Yes61c152.15$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9620548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Yes50c150.62$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0310865.7%71 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe592…691abacked Yes77c150$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-62%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes12c149.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.789721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6981…2521backed Yes67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3754…9c94backed Yes67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2afa…61f6backed Yes11c148.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.87540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ec…fd3fbacked Yes69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick66cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0809…b2f4backed Yes71c143.22$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked No70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.867450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x750d…566bbacked Yes20c138$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.045250%26 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Yes15c138$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.716464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.