Music · resolved market
Will "ICE" be said at the Grammys?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b69db7afbea6e8a1b82aabfb65797a6c43ef8a4a675aa4662bdf37073c7c23f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 4c | 499.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed No | 4c | 248.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 9c | 165.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed No | 14c | 109.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…4e3cbacked No | 12c | 100.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec8…82eabacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4e…466dbacked No | 21c | 99.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…1878backed Yes | 50c | 98.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…c5e3backed No | 44c | 91.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…c731backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…6702backed Yes | 79c | 56.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…ec46backed No | 21c | 49.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d5…9813backed Yes | 79c | 41.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c2…058dbacked No | 49c | 40.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…3a3bbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 78c | 33.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc832…69f6backed No | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdee8…b6d8backed Yes | 75c | 30.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…1226backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65c…46ddbacked Yes | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fc…a83bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "ICE" be said at the Grammys?this page
- Will "Bitcoin" be said at the Grammys?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the Grammys?Yes won
- Will "Gay" or "Queer" be said at the Grammys?No won
- Will "Gender" be said at the Grammys?No won
- Will "Justin" be said at the Grammys?Yes won
- Will "Oscars" be said at the Grammys?No won
- Will "Super Bowl" be said at the Grammys?Yes won
- Will "Taylor" be said at the Grammys?Yes won
- Will "The Chicks" be said at the Grammys?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Grammys?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.