Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f45b58abc8daa04cd25d02c033426c6812c4c1b4ff04c542c369e43beeebfab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $453,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $373,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $453,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 6c | 25,056$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.04 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 21,160$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.82 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 5c | 14,268$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.47 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 0c | 13,848$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 5c | 10,398$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.72 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 2c | 8,932$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 3c | 8,159$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.02 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 16c | 7,678$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.41 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 6c | 6,648$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.99 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 8c | 5,807$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.73 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,366$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.19 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 4,075$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.12 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,824$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 3,668$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.34 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 5c | 3,654$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.84 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 10c | 3,389$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.66 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 3,362$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.6 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 15c | 3,107$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.83 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,824$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fe…7610backed Yes | 2c | 2,746$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 20c | 2,713$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.99 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 2,685$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.99 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 7c | 2,529$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.49 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,502$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0333…7d70backed Yes | 2c | 2,350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 4c | 2,268$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 3c | 2,258$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes | 8c | 2,148$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 6c | 2,079$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.52 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 10c | 1,898$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.83 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af3…e37dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,776$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 17c | 1,699$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 3c | 1,659$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 13c | 1,607$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 5c | 1,589$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,567$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 15c | 1,510$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 2c | 1,455$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,454$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 1c | 1,436$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 16c | 1,400$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.06 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…d65cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,372$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9949…1d0cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,346$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,327$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 6c | 1,282$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…a236backed Yes | 2c | 1,248$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,243$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 13c | 1,227$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 22c | 1,200$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.79 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01cf…a424backed Yes | 5c | 1,171$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 5c | 1,103$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed No | 74c | 1,057$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.68 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…4501backed Yes | 12c | 1,034$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 10c | 1,015$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…6492backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +344.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb63…79debacked Yes | 9c | 950$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 4c | 939.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 4c | 900$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Yes | 1c | 899.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 10c | 873.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 23c | 862.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 6c | 800$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…40f6backed Yes | 5c | 799.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…0b00backed Yes | 6c | 779.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 9c | 765.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 21c | 745.52$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8086…4d3dbacked Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8038…72cfbacked Yes | 2c | 645.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…6422backed Yes | 18c | 641$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 573.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…41cebacked Yes | 9c | 573.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5392…90d6backed Yes | 12c | 554.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…fa62backed Yes | 4c | 522.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2da…1108backed Yes | 8c | 522.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…d019backed Yes | 10c | 521.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 78 | 11.5%9 W · 69 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 12c | 515$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a3…2003backed Yes | 27c | 500$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe70…2223backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 23c | 499.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 14c | 499.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 20c | 492.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…6a4ebacked Yes | 14c | 490$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 6c | 487.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 4c | 475.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +196.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 466.73$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 16c | 461.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…905dbacked Yes | 17c | 443.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…5693backed No | 79c | 440$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 3c | 439.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…af7dbacked Yes | 16c | 424.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 97 | 30.9%30 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 23c | 408.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.