Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x039eaade1b3cddc5fa4c45ab046ff0cfce89179ef9bb6da9279d79dd3a8d9c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $314,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43f1…06e5backed No | 39c | 15,716$6,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,122.66 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 0c | 13,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 19c | 8,882$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.69 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 79c | 7,922$6,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.92 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes | 61c | 7,539$4,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,917.97 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 73c | 6,792$4,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.64 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 64c | 6,100$3,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,182.25 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 5,581$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 68c | 4,540$3,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.94 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 52c | 3,869$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.8 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 55c | 3,000$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.84 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 21c | 2,386$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.77 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 28c | 2,062$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.41 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed Yes | 60c | 1,588$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.03 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…92d8backed Yes | 60c | 1,415$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.89 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 64c | 1,282$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.97 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 21c | 1,178$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.07 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…6422backed Yes | 64c | 1,094$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.54 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 40c | 1,091$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.81 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.53 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 67c | 999.95$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.97 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 70c | 920.62$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.88 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 66c | 899.99$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.99 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ad…f700backed Yes | 57c | 874.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.09 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 57c | 852.26$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.63 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2080…6d80backed Yes | 68c | 811.46$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.46 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 57c | 806.07$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.14 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 20c | 804.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.4 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 51c | 798.03$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.13 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…6492backed Yes | 75c | 795.37$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.92 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 20c | 728.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.28 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 46c | 699.77$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.25 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 2c | 617.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 66c | 607.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…40f6backed Yes | 61c | 601.79$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 54c | 598.22$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.19 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 30c | 586.04$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.13 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04a…af81backed Yes | 63c | 550$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…83edbacked No | 37c | 550$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 62c | 542.19$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.26 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 56c | 535.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.96 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…505ebacked Yes | 65c | 530.6$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 57c | 528.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.58 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Yes | 75c | 511.11$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.11 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…63f8backed Yes | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a3…2003backed No | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 62c | 495.56$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 493$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 469.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.35 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…5981backed No | 39c | 459.21$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 46c | 454.09$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.98 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes | 25c | 436.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.58 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…4501backed Yes | 60c | 414.08$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 66c | 400$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 70c | 400$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 23c | 400$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…eb7abacked Yes | 65c | 399.57$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 58c | 390.79$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.04 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed No | 30c | 381.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 27c | 377.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.29 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…a5a3backed Yes | 64c | 367.88$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.63 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 56c | 363$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.65 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…6c7bbacked Yes | 46c | 352.93$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.83 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 343.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.93 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f43…b0d9backed Yes | 30c | 336.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7506…6740backed Yes | 64c | 335.01$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…6babbacked Yes | 64c | 332.07$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…5a62backed Yes | 27c | 327.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.04 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 27c | 320.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.33 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 64c | 308.07$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.16 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…5d81backed Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 71c | 303$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.13 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked No | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 28c | 299.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.99 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed Yes | 53c | 299.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 52c | 289.84$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.02 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…085cbacked Yes | 22c | 273.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.64 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked No | 38c | 269.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed No | 37c | 267.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 22c | 266.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.42 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…7cb7backed Yes | 62c | 256.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6800…587bbacked Yes | 47c | 256.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 20c | 254.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.41 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 34c | 244.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed No | 37c | 242.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…70c5backed Yes | 70c | 238.93$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 36c | 236.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…3103backed Yes | 49c | 235.27$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 26c | 228.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 67c | 202.56$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb63…79debacked Yes | 47c | 200.1$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.