Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22f314fab4293c44e746628d70f8f76a1e07e474d9c34b212197af9e5ff486ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 27,517$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.21 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 8,417$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.63 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f1…06e5backed Yes | 3c | 8,316$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.05 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,367$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 5,389$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 4c | 5,247$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.39 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 5,226$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.58 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 3,606$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.19 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…f1c2backed Yes | 1c | 3,472$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,396$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 3,260$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.61 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 8c | 3,255$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.14 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 3,130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…9f72backed Yes | 5c | 2,427$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 9cpaid | +307.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…14f4backed Yes | 2c | 2,357$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 1c | 2,103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,762$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 10c | 1,691$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 2c | 1,648$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,565$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,449$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,436$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,364$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,359$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 10c | 1,359$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5d19backed Yes | 25c | 1,192$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 4c | 1,027$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 999.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 33c | 985.46$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.2 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 9c | 950$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e8…105ebacked Yes | 22c | 840.24$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…d847backed No | 78c | 783.68$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes | 28c | 728.74$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…8cf3backed No | 79c | 726.96$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…4e5abacked Yes | 4c | 666.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 4c | 631.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 608.8$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.57 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…59a1backed No | 75c | 605.97$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.13 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 278 | 11.9%33 W · 245 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c60…fcf2backed No | 78c | 584.97$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 19c | 562.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 560.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…91cabacked Yes | 3c | 531.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 27c | 513.14$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe767…5049backed Yes | 2c | 481.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 26c | 479.09$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 473.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 7c | 468.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 135 | 6.7%9 W · 126 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 9c | 441.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…2e95backed Yes | 23c | 437.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…7723backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 24c | 424.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…5e40backed Yes | 4c | 403.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 374.9$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…652dbacked Yes | 31c | 324.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 20c | 300.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 20c | 290.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes | 26c | 282.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 91 | 17.6%16 W · 75 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 21c | 225.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 73c | 212.84$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…3105backed Yes | 27c | 210.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 200.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…f7c3backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…209cbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c00…cb2bbacked Yes | 29c | 194$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…184abacked Yes | 20c | 188$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…0f58backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…085cbacked Yes | 24c | 148.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa635…4abfbacked Yes | 25c | 136.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…d75ebacked Yes | 15c | 130.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…328cbacked Yes | 23c | 110.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 13c | 103.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…9fd0backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…3b2dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…5a62backed Yes | 28c | 90.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…ecb2backed Yes | 22c | 80.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f8…ccacbacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed No | 68c | 69.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…aacdbacked Yes | 29c | 67.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…09dfbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…d3b5backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…a236backed Yes | 33c | 57.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked No | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.