TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Cricket · resolved market

T20 World Cup: Australia vs Zimbabwe (Game 1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Zimbabweof Australia, Zimbabwe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,311,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,275,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,311,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 438 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Cricket
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Australia78c122,723$95,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,447.511338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Zimbabwe22c97,831$21,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,100.032045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Zimbabwe21c72,931$15,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,543.081020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Australia78c65,469$50,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,959.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa3…47acbacked Australia0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Zimbabwe16c41,000$6,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,540.8413151.9%68 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Zimbabwe23c38,320$8,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,389.144022.5%9 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e33…5825backed Zimbabwe29c38,317$10,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,383.334637%17 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Zimbabwe15c37,052$5,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,405.7328749.5%142 W · 145 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Zimbabwe17c34,721$6,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,664.6915429.9%46 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3d…4841backed Australia67c25,604$17,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,042.7415335.3%54 W · 99 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Zimbabwe51c21,895$11,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,657.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb42…0b87backed Australia37c20,496$7,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,602.629146.2%42 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Zimbabwe46c19,246$8,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,353.8533042.4%140 W · 190 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5115…b61dbacked Australia75c18,156$13,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,555.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Australia75c17,593$13,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,267.219241.3%38 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef51…c0d3backed Australia66c13,942$9,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,136.6216349.7%81 W · 82 L+10.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Australia65c13,188$8,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,584.2710863.9%69 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed Zimbabwe30c13,096$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,196.1514852%77 W · 71 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Australia58c13,072$7,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,566.931735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Zimbabwe16c12,691$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,633.348742.5%37 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+209.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ed…cfe3backed Australia55c12,000$6,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,629.984168.3%28 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5197…610fbacked Australia52c11,609$5,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,996.982536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Australia7c10,800$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.0831027.4%85 W · 225 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Australia51c9,374$4,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,747.275637.5%21 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Zimbabwe24c8,235$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,232.341942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Australia51c8,030$4,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,059.155933.9%20 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Australia63c7,998$5,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,066.5929631.1%92 W · 204 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Zimbabwe10c7,897$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,146.673941%16 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd367…0957backed Zimbabwe33c7,795$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,195.064431.8%14 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8fe…3ee3backed Zimbabwe9c7,500$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,809.742630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Australia78c7,443$5,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,769.149851%50 W · 48 L-9.1wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97d1…7d7dbacked Zimbabwe17c7,362$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,088.8632846.3%152 W · 176 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa69b…7b0cbacked Zimbabwe29c7,303$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,196.322552.4%118 W · 107 L+20.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Zimbabwe26c6,773$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,007.1813227.3%36 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Zimbabwe56c6,751$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000.942119%4 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Australia39c6,656$2,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,579.2950247.4%238 W · 264 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ee…1686backed Zimbabwe11c6,517$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,780.1918923.8%45 W · 144 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f50…b9c8backed Australia65c6,500$4,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2152437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…227ebacked Zimbabwe24c5,733$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,378.684540%18 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cf4…5daabacked Zimbabwe38c5,216$1,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,226.544047.5%19 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169d…fb3dbacked Zimbabwe49c4,690$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.28775.2%4 W · 73 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Zimbabwe59c4,521$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Zimbabwe59c4,500$2,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.0311445.6%52 W · 62 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa772…b18cbacked Australia13c4,455$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.912263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Australia48c4,342$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.098949.4%44 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…dd30backed Zimbabwe19c4,118$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,346.676344.4%28 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5448…3cecbacked Australia40c4,028$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-52.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a54…ba69backed Australia55c3,766$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.55742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Australia0c3,554$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.723698.7%32 W · 337 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x327a…2381backed Zimbabwe23c3,531$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.512122.3%27 W · 94 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Zimbabwe10c3,300$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,970650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+128.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ef…eeaabacked Australia51c3,212$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.726958%40 W · 29 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3cb4…f89dbacked Zimbabwe8c3,126$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.224254.8%23 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+33.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Australia49c3,046$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.724940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Australia75c3,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2503548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbae6…1ab2backed Australia3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked Zimbabwe61c3,000$1,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.824025%10 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a65…8d8fbacked Australia52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5602114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-69.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Australia28c2,962$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.562524%6 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Australia80c2,774$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.284637%17 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Australia6c2,633$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.764226.2%11 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-29.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Zimbabwe13c2,606$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.1563346.3%293 W · 340 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Zimbabwe14c2,514$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.3510149.5%50 W · 51 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Australia40c2,499$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.524537.8%17 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcef6…fae1backed Australia4c2,003$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69a6…4b30backed Zimbabwe18c1,990$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.615742.7%67 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c25…f1ccbacked Zimbabwe23c1,840$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.383154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdb…75dbbacked Australia1c1,700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee6e…8dacbacked Australia69c1,700$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1731323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-65.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Zimbabwe19c1,655$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.9967631.4%212 W · 464 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed8…9dd0backed Australia36c1,492$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.1711524.3%28 W · 87 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Zimbabwe9c1,421$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+177.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Zimbabwe12c1,400$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23814546.2%67 W · 78 L+16.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b88…b89abacked Zimbabwe20c1,380$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.613262.5%20 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x00de…3e7dbacked Zimbabwe9c1,372$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.496440.6%26 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a1…e821backed Australia31c1,266$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39223555.3%130 W · 105 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b31…754abacked Zimbabwe64c1,248$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked Australia17c1,247$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2611839.8%47 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed76…c4c8backed Australia61c1,244$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.63837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8efa…416ebacked Zimbabwe8c1,200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.991323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Zimbabwe49c1,151$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.545655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72a7…1493backed Zimbabwe74c1,147$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.514235.7%15 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Zimbabwe16c1,109$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.0376251.6%393 W · 369 L+29.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e7a…500cbacked Australia33c1,100$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.523754.4%129 W · 108 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09d9…7574backed Australia61c1,090$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74bc…e4dabacked Australia71c1,067$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.995341.5%22 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d9…f193backed Australia10c1,055$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.324717%8 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Zimbabwe8c1,051$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.371050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+107.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x460d…9d5fbacked Zimbabwe25c1,029$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.19944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd3…b751backed Australia1c1,020$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.39258%2 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9545…7116backed Australia1c1,019$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Zimbabwe10c1,000$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.87669.1%6 W · 60 L-10.5wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-71.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa647…a412backed Australia58c996.55$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5783917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Australia72c995.49$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.2314431.9%46 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Australia41c990.06$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.339340.9%38 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Zimbabwe64c935.57$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.575332.1%17 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0126…e11abacked Australia44c900$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3961618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-64.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Australia70c897.03$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.227027.1%19 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Australia69c897.01$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.535244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.