Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a02ee04582d8a572c4427ecc12d1beebeecaa50220e9ca5e40373ad6fe1db21

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,938,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,350,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,938,947 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 881 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	124,177$5,263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,262.95	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda6…925abacked Yes	1c	55,850$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.27	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	4c	39,617$1,627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,626.68	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	35,399$3,483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,483.4	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes	0c	35,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	5c	33,259$1,751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,751.44	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	16c	28,265$4,636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,635.91	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	23,788$2,270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,270.27	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	4c	16,693$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.53	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	15,554$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	5c	14,523$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.94	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes	0c	13,814$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	17c	13,063$2,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,222.46	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	2c	12,643$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.95	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	17c	11,965$1,987 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,986.88	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked Yes	40c	11,839$4,769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,768.58	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	10,849$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.34	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	18c	10,698$1,904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,903.51	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	10,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes	3c	9,265$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	9,010$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.47	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	8,794$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.3	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	30c	8,521$2,581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,580.52	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	7c	8,383$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.74	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd20…c958backed Yes	4c	8,286$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.86	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	13c	8,221$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030.11	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf336…c654backed Yes	6c	8,000$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+148.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc029…0533backed Yes	8c	7,799$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	20c	7,571$1,507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,507.26	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	28c	7,464$2,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,089.7	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	27c	7,448$2,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,004.34	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	78c	7,428$5,812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,616.25	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes	5c	7,300$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	7,296$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.85	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	7,225$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.38	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	15c	6,950$1,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,057.09	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	23c	6,902$1,617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,617.36	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	3c	6,859$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	5c	6,844$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	1c	6,840$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.81	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes	5c	6,119$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.87	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	13c	5,949$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.82	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	25c	5,926$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	5,800$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.59	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4058…4c04backed Yes	1c	5,797$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.91	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes	2c	5,345$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.41	103	22.3%23 W · 80 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	9c	5,340$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.58	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	19c	5,287$982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$982.15	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed No	78c	5,240$4,077 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,162.97	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	5c	5,189$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.68	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes	1c	5,180$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.41	141	53.9%76 W · 65 L	+13.6wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	5,039$4,014 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,024.53	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	31c	5,018$1,538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,537.96	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	2c	5,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.81	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	5,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	27c	4,985$1,352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,352.44	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	7c	4,834$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.9	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x607d…2327backed Yes	18c	4,612$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$809.76	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes	13c	4,465$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.27	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	19c	4,399$847 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$846.7	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	4,321$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.97	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x709b…1001backed Yes	26c	4,300$1,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,111.88	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	6c	4,132$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.84	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	3c	4,096$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.16	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	31c	3,961$1,239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,238.75	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	17c	3,784$628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.37	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	75c	3,755$2,808 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$947.37	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	28c	3,742$1,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,041.88	75	36%27 W · 48 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40de…0e3abacked Yes	1c	3,678$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+76.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes	19c	3,673$715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.96	97	28.9%28 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	3,538$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.93	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	5c	3,500$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.57	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes	30c	3,498$1,061 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060.84	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	4c	3,290$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	3,200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	20c	3,099$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.8	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	23c	3,093$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.94	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	22c	3,014$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.89	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	3c	3,000$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x811e…265cbacked Yes	27c	2,976$818 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$817.51	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	77c	2,947$2,272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$674.96	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes	0c	2,943$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	99	23.2%23 W · 76 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5313…9309backed Yes	9c	2,901$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.95	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	8c	2,654$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.9	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	4c	2,632$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa901…d418backed Yes	0c	2,590$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ca…3f6ebacked Yes	39c	2,567$1,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,004.42	50	26%13 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc312…9955backed Yes	5c	2,550$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	11c	2,510$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.35	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	6c	2,508$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.19	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	7c	2,503$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.01	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	2,500$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.5	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8be0…bee3backed Yes	4c	2,463$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	22c	2,459$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.53	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0539…70f9backed Yes	6c	2,452$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7243…0fa8backed Yes	31c	2,442$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.02	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	2c	2,439$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.85	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	1c	2,400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	15c	2,290$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.88	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	13c	2,261$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.2	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event