Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe763197f82ed1189d4faa1ffbcf1b396f017e59aab6966189bcbd3b5dc33ace8

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $311,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $187,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,938 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7383…bd0bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	3c	8,131$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.57	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	2c	7,196$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.27	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	5,678$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.47	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	5,656$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.63	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	1c	4,631$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.16	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	1c	4,553$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	3,849$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.79	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	3c	3,656$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.01	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ecc…6931backed Yes	5c	2,681$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.05	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	4c	2,624$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,529$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.38	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	2,425$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	2,375$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.87	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,267$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	2,250$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.09	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf833…37f0backed Yes	6c	2,002$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.37	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	5c	1,971$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.36	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	1c	1,667$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.44	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,519$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.44	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	1,500$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	7c	1,496$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.13	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	7c	1,432$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	3c	1,304$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.13	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	3c	1,224$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.48	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,218$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.33	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8651…6716backed Yes	2c	1,179$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x602e…e237backed Yes	1c	1,162$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,118$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,105$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.96	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes	4c	1,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	6c	899.96$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	2c	894.62$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.23	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	4c	782.5$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.3	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d15…e453backed Yes	5c	768.39$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	32	6.3%2 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	1c	757.05$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	4c	706.86$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.68	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…0821backed Yes	7c	701.26$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c8…4d86backed Yes	8c	700$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	7c	699.97$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.1	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	6c	669.18$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	5c	600$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	592.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.69	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd805…4a00backed Yes	4c	577.74$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.75	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	5c	567.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	4c	540.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	4c	509.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.51	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	4c	504.65$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.07	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	5c	500.19$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	7c	500$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	5c	459.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	445.5$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.9	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	5c	423.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	5c	418.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	356.77$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x342a…3501backed Yes	6c	342.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	5c	334.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf885…37e8backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f9…f6c4backed Yes	5c	299.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.9wins	-0.15per pick	22cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb03…eb4fbacked Yes	7c	230.2$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes	6c	205.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd562…6912backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed87…b78abacked Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	47	4.3%2 W · 45 L	-4.9wins	-0.10per pick	15cpaid	-76%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b2e…41eabacked Yes	8c	137.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	136	14.7%20 W · 116 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb797…dc58backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event