Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31088cc51a2e0b3098dabbe91c88a2a06c5cc10c46ca7629515404d46f32e71a

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $530,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $267,068

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,732 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7383…bd0bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	0c	18,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	13,016$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	13,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25ea…8cd0backed Yes	2c	10,601$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	9,951$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ded…3636backed Yes	2c	9,645$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,124$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.73	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	8,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	3c	7,743$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	75	36%27 W · 48 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	7,580$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	0c	7,464$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55d…6604backed Yes	14c	7,177$991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$991.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	6,052$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.14	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	10c	6,000$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	7c	4,971$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.7	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	4,949$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.65	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,911$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.57	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…415bbacked Yes	11c	4,589$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	0c	4,251$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	7c	4,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	6c	3,726$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.91	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf833…37f0backed Yes	11c	3,710$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.98	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	3,250$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.21	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	2,933$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.26	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	3c	2,222$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.66	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes	6c	2,183$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	2,132$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	2,084$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.86	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	7c	2,021$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.63	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	5c	2,000$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	1,995$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.2	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x475b…e152backed Yes	11c	1,900$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.33	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-34%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	1,833$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,772$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.69	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,630$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.86	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22fe…e91bbacked Yes	3c	1,554$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,546$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,500$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.96	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd85d…e660backed Yes	1c	1,457$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	9c	1,421$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.99	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b90…62d6backed Yes	14c	1,382$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	3c	1,345$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,325$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.09	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	5c	1,294$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.51	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	4c	1,252$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.84	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd805…4a00backed Yes	8c	1,100$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.01	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,084$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	11c	1,083$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	1c	1,030$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	11c	1,030$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.8	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f1b…c2a3backed Yes	5c	1,023$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fdf…a3c8backed Yes	13c	1,012$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	3c	954.61$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.19	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6db6…5001backed Yes	2c	949.97$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+165.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	15c	900$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b28…5b76backed Yes	12c	896.78$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes	1c	818.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	91	16.5%15 W · 76 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes	13c	800$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb752…42bbbacked Yes	9c	800$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+65.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	749.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	720.05$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.48	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee97…5e70backed Yes	12c	663.5$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.62	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	640.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7814…8713backed Yes	2c	636.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4db…8ea1backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc1…3e21backed Yes	6c	624.36$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.93	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+77.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	4c	606.49$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	8c	606.41$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.64	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	6c	604.93$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.05	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	11c	600.24$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf94d…df11backed Yes	2c	600.13$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61c8…4d86backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	9c	599.97$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	8c	583.79$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.38	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	9c	559.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	7c	542.95$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	4c	513.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e27…ef09backed Yes	8c	513.39$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	67	11.9%8 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	10c	509.97$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	8c	504.55$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5947…8bdabacked Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	148	18.2%27 W · 121 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4a…cef0backed Yes	5c	500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+374.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	11c	490$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.4	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	473.86$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	468.79$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	13c	461.54$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf883…9fa2backed Yes	4c	452$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-44%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ca7…20bbbacked Yes	11c	451.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	450$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.8	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	9c	449.29$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.85	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event