Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4cc8ed087d6307c58683ddb645956966490ffe650d4c9130240dd60d81b5bb0

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $197,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $57,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,573 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8ecc…6931backed Yes	4c	7,816$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.86	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	1c	7,550$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.4	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	6,258$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.07	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	5,256$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.42	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e2…d68fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.38	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,412$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.23	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	0c	2,494$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	2,258$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.4	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	3c	2,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	1,876$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.8	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	3c	1,689$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.27	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	2c	1,583$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.02	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,572$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.29	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,541$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	1,500$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.5	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf833…37f0backed Yes	4c	1,500$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	2c	1,452$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.88	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67f…e81cbacked Yes	4c	1,382$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	1,371$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.84	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,164$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.33	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes	4c	999.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd805…4a00backed Yes	3c	999.96$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	2c	999.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	993.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…0821backed Yes	4c	936.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	4c	905.42$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.25	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	5c	900$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.79	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	786.06$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.03	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes	4c	766.29$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.18	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	5c	750$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.75	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	3c	746.63$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.15	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	4c	700$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.4	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	699.81$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.48	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	2c	692.03$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.35	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	600$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	2c	583.6$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e34…754cbacked Yes	4c	571.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+136.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	549.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	542.92$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.54	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	4c	541.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.66	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	4c	538.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	4c	510.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	4c	510$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.41	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ca…7d8fbacked Yes	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	3c	499.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0d…b6cabacked Yes	4c	456.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa236…15f8backed Yes	5c	434.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x342a…3501backed Yes	5c	424.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	414.71$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	4c	410.71$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d15…e453backed Yes	5c	407.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	6.3%2 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes	4c	362.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	4c	333.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	4c	310.25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.41	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	4c	302.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61c8…4d86backed Yes	7c	300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe863…9a56backed Yes	4c	292.86$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd562…6912backed Yes	8c	198.92$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes	6c	193.9$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event