Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda9fd182ee2e2f4ba7a0feb3f01fbf25c4bc9637476e1ad524ca3b62ab2a0d95

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,928,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,145,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,928,623 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 921 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	105,179$10,615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,614.97	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	20c	67,842$13,536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,535.99	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43f6…ee3ebacked Yes	1c	67,681$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.54	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf336…c654backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+148.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	31c	32,122$9,865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,864.93	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x960b…4a03backed No	59c	30,932$18,115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,817.34	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…4727backed Yes	1c	30,930$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.44	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b1…c7e3backed Yes	20c	30,586$6,148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,148.05	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	12c	27,082$3,355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,355.13	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	25,853$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720.18	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…a519backed Yes	0c	20,637$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.29	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	27cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb982…2f44backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked Yes	15c	19,096$2,828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,828.23	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	13c	16,066$2,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,012.34	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	24c	15,824$3,783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,782.64	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	22c	15,789$3,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,500	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	36c	15,205$5,498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,497.8	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	23c	14,716$3,386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,386.06	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	5c	14,416$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.76	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01f…06f5backed Yes	0c	14,010$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	4c	12,657$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.97	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes	1c	11,989$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.5	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	21c	11,940$2,454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,453.64	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	10,952$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.48	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae9…0624backed Yes	0c	10,299$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	1c	10,290$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.3	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	10,249$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.08	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb66…40b6backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	55c	9,610$5,326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,283.48	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x559f…04a4backed Yes	3c	9,603$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.95	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	29c	9,304$2,654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,653.77	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	12c	9,127$1,133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,132.55	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	16c	8,959$1,398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,398.38	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	8,560$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.01	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	16c	8,505$1,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,344.07	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	5c	8,495$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.76	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	3c	8,326$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.75	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	3c	8,084$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.47	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No	73c	7,520$5,485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,034.79	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	10c	7,464$748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.65	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	26c	7,350$1,925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,924.79	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	14c	7,000$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,010.37	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Yes	9c	6,945$617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.31	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	6,900$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	17c	6,896$1,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,192.97	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	45c	6,840$3,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,072.71	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb52…67ccbacked No	78c	6,634$5,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,429.85	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+251.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	25c	6,486$1,651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,651.01	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	21c	6,462$1,330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,330.34	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	6,134$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.82	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	5,977$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.92	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	5,945$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.36	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	28c	5,800$1,650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,649.7	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	28c	5,672$1,571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,570.73	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes	6c	5,550$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.6	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	4c	5,529$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	19c	5,468$1,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,013.86	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed Yes	3c	5,453$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.34	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	71c	5,242$3,714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,528.1	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes	3c	5,171$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.91	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	5,114$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.84	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	4c	5,100$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.69	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x513c…9931backed Yes	0c	5,039$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	8c	5,029$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.11	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ba…4586backed Yes	14c	5,024$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.08	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61dc…673dbacked Yes	7c	4,974$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.14	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	16c	4,943$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.99	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	30c	4,902$1,481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,481.4	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34bf…26e7backed Yes	4c	4,898$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.53	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	73c	4,815$3,501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,313.59	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes	41c	4,723$1,936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,935.86	93	32.3%30 W · 63 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x811e…265cbacked Yes	40c	4,664$1,868 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,868.26	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	4,545$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.13	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	5c	4,539$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.8	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	3c	4,524$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.08	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba35…1b73backed Yes	2c	4,483$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	5c	4,462$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.9	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1287…85adbacked Yes	22c	4,398$981 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980.89	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c68…878dbacked No	80c	4,387$3,489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$897.38	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	4,368$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.38	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	48c	4,184$2,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,181.15	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	13c	4,182$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.26	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,176$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.73	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	4,113$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e3f…cf5ebacked Yes	0c	4,046$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2364…d963backed No	63c	3,940$2,491 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,448.29	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd5…6428backed Yes	6c	3,894$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.07	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	10cpaid	+31%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	3,750$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.8	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	10c	3,714$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.46	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	3,705$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.63	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes	9c	3,611$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	3,492$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.5	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd5…41f2backed Yes	7c	3,420$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.22	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	11cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	13c	3,420$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92c7…224ebacked Yes	1c	3,407$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…70b7backed Yes	15c	3,365$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.04	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb20…d6fcbacked Yes	33c	3,338$1,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,085.75	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	3,314$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.79	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked No	71c	3,247$2,295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$952.62	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed No	66c	3,219$2,139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080.63	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event