Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50d01a34bec98cbbdccca27ce177d3643c95d95672036a9528f491bdfcbba974

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,915,377
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,688,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,915,377 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,011 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3a58…7e08backed No	0c	37,650$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.95	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed No	68c	36,973$25,277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,276.6	97	28.9%28 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x960b…4a03backed No	64c	35,198$22,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22,403.79	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	80c	33,004$26,363 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,640.92	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	33c	31,421$10,431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,990.13	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked No	0c	30,000$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	74c	26,131$19,218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,218.11	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	25,261$1,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,353.29	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	25c	24,799$6,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,550.84	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	42c	19,740$8,386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,353.78	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	25c	18,678$4,657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,020.92	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked Yes	20c	15,816$3,103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,712.71	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed No	73c	13,041$9,541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,540.93	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked No	9c	11,827$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,056.12	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	21c	11,232$2,312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,919.89	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	61c	10,138$6,137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,000.96	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	40c	10,021$4,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,003.59	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	10,013$871 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,142.85	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed Yes	27c	9,490$2,532 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,958.38	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	30c	8,792$2,608 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,184.29	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	73c	8,779$6,429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,428.89	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	16c	8,628$1,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,252.4	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c68…878dbacked Yes	33c	8,351$2,743 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,607.61	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked No	0c	8,180$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.36	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	65c	8,091$5,263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,827.34	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	38c	7,464$2,854 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,609.58	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	24c	7,164$1,730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,433.9	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Yes	9c	7,151$620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,530.52	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	19c	7,032$1,337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,694.82	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	46c	6,840$3,172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,667.62	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	40c	6,200$2,503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,696.6	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes	43c	6,180$2,629 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,550.4	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	37c	6,176$2,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,275.06	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	15c	6,001$888 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,113.53	75	36%27 W · 48 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	5,801$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,358.56	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	61c	5,800$3,541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,258.95	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	42c	5,800$2,428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,371.69	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	24c	5,765$1,399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,365.41	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed No	1c	5,216$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.02	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	6c	5,140$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,852.95	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01f…06f5backed No	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	55c	4,879$2,676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,676.17	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	4,817$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,519.03	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	8c	4,703$359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,344.17	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x709b…1001backed Yes	42c	4,641$1,971 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,669.25	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	41c	4,620$1,901 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,718.8	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	5c	4,261$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,062.49	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34bf…26e7backed Yes	16c	4,239$664 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,574.57	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No	1c	4,215$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.01	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	46c	4,158$1,909 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,248.13	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	27c	4,150$1,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,019.47	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	43c	4,053$1,742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,311.23	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	41c	4,050$1,659 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,391.11	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	12c	4,011$474 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,536.53	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	20c	3,888$776 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,111.69	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	35c	3,766$1,328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,438.12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	37c	3,560$1,318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,241.91	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	13c	3,477$457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,019.38	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	25c	3,340$833 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,506.33	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	10c	3,235$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,924.19	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	3,217$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,036.73	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	34c	3,216$1,081 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,134.84	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf833…37f0backed Yes	11c	3,205$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,841.84	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes	49c	3,194$1,570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,623.93	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	4c	3,187$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,057.43	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	39c	3,070$1,192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,877.95	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes	10c	3,056$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,736.3	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	40c	3,000$1,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,795.99	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes	32c	2,784$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,883.81	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	2,755$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,683.19	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	80c	2,726$2,173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.26	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	69c	2,724$1,892 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$832.41	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd20…c958backed Yes	20c	2,623$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,107.26	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	2,576$1,956 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,956.14	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	45c	2,576$1,154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,421.74	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	56c	2,545$1,428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,116.34	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes	58c	2,511$1,462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,049.02	32	65.6%21 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	6c	2,500$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,359.98	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42fd…f00dbacked Yes	39c	2,496$981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,515.31	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa060…d60bbacked No	63c	2,479$1,565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,564.74	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-4.8wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-38%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0fba…22f2backed Yes	14c	2,475$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,134.7	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+79.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb379…3a8cbacked Yes	6c	2,461$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,302.19	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.27per pick	16cpaid	+583.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	76c	2,391$1,808 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$583.03	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	2,383$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,286.26	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	32c	2,362$751 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,610.76	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	21c	2,320$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,840.59	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes	50c	2,319$1,169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,150.49	113	39.8%45 W · 68 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	2,268$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,113.73	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	23c	2,211$513 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,698.08	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	5c	2,201$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,081.18	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	58c	2,169$1,262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$906.45	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed No	7c	2,153$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.11	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	7c	2,100$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,944.5	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8097…ce38backed Yes	12c	2,061$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,821.08	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	+71.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes	31c	2,001$625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,375.93	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	5c	2,000$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,901	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d96…0c7fbacked Yes	63c	2,000$1,252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$748.1	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,780	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67dc…a482backed No	67c	1,953$1,312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,312	5	60%3 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe995…1e98backed Yes	4c	1,941$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,866.82	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event