Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f9dc35483f3c868488c143c384f8b7ebe826ccbdc0a603dc85bae3fb2c2ebb

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $330,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $212,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,291 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	18,887$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	6,774$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.28	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	1c	6,676$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	6,000$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.86	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	9c	5,470$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.29	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	4c	5,438$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.52	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	5,386$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.25	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	4,995$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	3c	4,256$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.52	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,900$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	3,629$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.79	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	3,550$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.71	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,474$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.21	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	2c	3,072$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.93	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	2,532$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.88	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db6…5001backed Yes	1c	2,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+165.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,484$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.43	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	2,222$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.99	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	5c	1,837$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.76	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	1,836$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	7c	1,750$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,702$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,670$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.28	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	6c	1,644$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf833…37f0backed Yes	8c	1,507$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.73	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	1,502$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.19	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	1c	1,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	1,483$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	1c	1,476$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4db…8ea1backed Yes	7c	1,429$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f1b…c2a3backed Yes	2c	1,397$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	9c	1,368$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes	6c	999.95$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	3c	995.03$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.85	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	2c	953.16$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	9c	900$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	884.73$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.03	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	786.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.35	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	2c	779.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd805…4a00backed Yes	5c	739.55$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.98	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	2c	653.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	623.23$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	5c	600.59$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.11	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	6c	600$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	9c	599.77$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.19	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	7c	571.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	7c	537.08$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.84	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	4c	534.74$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.39	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	5c	509.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…0821backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48c5…d96abacked Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-85.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	7c	450$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	7c	400$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ad…872bbacked Yes	7c	309.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c8…4d86backed Yes	8c	300$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	5c	283.06$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	9c	255.56$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	6c	250.21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.01	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	6c	250$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x342a…3501backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb03…eb4fbacked Yes	10c	250$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb0…24f0backed Yes	7c	249.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a12…619ebacked Yes	8c	246.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb928…db56backed Yes	7c	216.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.17	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes	7c	214.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f9…f6c4backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.9wins	-0.15per pick	22cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd562…6912backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299c…7462backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	8c	199.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	169.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b69…2beabacked Yes	8c	163.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd99…d113backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-74%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b5…5122backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b2e…41eabacked Yes	10c	122.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	136	14.7%20 W · 116 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f9d…32f0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event