Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe79255280c0c7150170a57b0ee2f6caa749bec1ce6f93ced9ed12994244a0e8

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,671,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,266,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,671,933 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	60,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	50,662$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	41,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	0c	24,214$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.21	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	1c	23,890$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.63	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes	0c	23,814$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	0cpaid	+6,150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe359…4515backed Yes	0c	23,525$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	23,150$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.15	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	22,692$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.69	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	0c	18,211$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.01	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	18,003$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.57	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5c7…3976backed Yes	0c	15,838$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.11	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	15,311$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.07	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	15,035$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.12	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes	0c	14,534$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.46	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	12,586$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.76	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	0c	12,512$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	12,498$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…1ca6backed Yes	0c	11,697$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	11,470$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.14	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x824a…3100backed Yes	0c	11,300$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked Yes	0c	11,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	10,183$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes	1c	10,020$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	62	21%13 W · 49 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c87…eb0dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	9,378$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.12	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	0c	9,250$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	8,876$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	2c	8,240$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.54	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c5f…7c46backed Yes	0c	7,700$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	7,649$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.06	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	0c	7,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	0c	7,464$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c34…8f4abacked Yes	0c	7,390$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-48%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac5b…ba39backed Yes	0c	7,072$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	6,800$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	6,594$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.81	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd5…6428backed Yes	0c	6,300$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.34	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	10cpaid	+31%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	6,119$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.4	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…1e2abacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes	0c	5,289$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae8c…5cd9backed Yes	0c	5,030$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	2c	5,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x208a…ab0fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	0c	4,459$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	4,200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,025$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.71	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb63…79debacked Yes	1c	3,465$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb97a…5855backed Yes	1c	3,333$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+174.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	3,331$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.66	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	1c	3,166$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	1c	3,080$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.93	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e1…62c8backed Yes	1c	3,010$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	1c	2,956$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.62	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…9054backed Yes	0c	2,861$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.93	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	1c	2,833$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.86	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	1c	2,676$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	2c	2,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.79	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	0c	2,254$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	2,242$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	2,142$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.57	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,112$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	3c	2,100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.76	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f67…6aaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-52%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	2c	1,891$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.64	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes	1c	1,866$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	12cpaid	+196.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	1,759$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,662$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	1c	1,590$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes	1c	1,589$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	2c	1,575$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefe6…7c8fbacked Yes	2c	1,522$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6030…d09cbacked Yes	3c	1,509$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2da…1108backed Yes	1c	1,405$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes	2c	1,389$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.66	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	1c	1,192$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.46	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,144$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.64	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8dd…7ac3backed Yes	1c	1,126$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	4cpaid	+442.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd85d…e660backed Yes	2c	1,116$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f2d…a236backed Yes	4c	1,100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	1c	1,079$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.57	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b9…19d0backed Yes	2c	1,055$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	2cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	2c	1,023$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes	2c	972.9$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-91.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb752…42bbbacked Yes	3c	953.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.79	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+65.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	1c	942.14$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	927.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa60…c581backed Yes	2c	862.16$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.07	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-4.6wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	2c	829$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad7…990dbacked Yes	2c	810.89$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	18cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	1c	753.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2efc…8259backed Yes	1c	708.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	3cpaid	+387.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	707.54$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	2c	700$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	2c	630.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef83…3969backed Yes	2c	616.66$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	5c	560$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	3c	509$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.42	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event