Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2dd1db6f087441cf589072f3ea2b48bb04ac5e6c7d471eb1ee7a502b41e7f5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $419,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $312,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $419,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 1c | 15,777$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.74 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 12c | 11,208$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.66 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 7c | 8,992$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.49 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 3c | 8,862$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 17c | 8,826$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.25 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…7cc7backed Yes | 27c | 8,727$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,595$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,309$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.67 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 15c | 6,141$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.35 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 5,573$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.3 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 5,557$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.33 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 4c | 5,403$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 4,585$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.96 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 4,564$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.47 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,460$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 38c | 4,450$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.49 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,316$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.11 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 23c | 4,265$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.22 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,185$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 154 | 7.8%12 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,912$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 1c | 3,779$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,770$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.28 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,500$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.97 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 3,466$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.32 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 1c | 3,349$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 76c | 3,300$2,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.06 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…4bf0backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 181 | 7.7%14 W · 167 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 1c | 2,554$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 9c | 2,511$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.2 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 2,166$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.73 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,853$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.87 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,832$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.39 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 2c | 1,812$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 14c | 1,798$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.69 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 27c | 1,762$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.19 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 2c | 1,681$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,663$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 35c | 1,581$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.11 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 10c | 1,414$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.98 | 882 | 10.3%91 W · 791 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…39f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,361$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,159$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 12c | 1,132$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,123$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 1,120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 2c | 1,099$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 4c | 1,071$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 24c | 1,026$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 14c | 1,024$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.67 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 1,019$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 10c | 1,010$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 2c | 982.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 13c | 945.39$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 4c | 928.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 28c | 927.91$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.46 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…a0babacked Yes | 2c | 899.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes | 27c | 888.5$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 872.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 11c | 868.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 281 | 11%31 W · 250 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81cd…4882backed Yes | 22c | 858.04$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes | 25c | 856.51$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 4c | 841.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 155 | 19.4%30 W · 125 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 71c | 840$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.52 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes | 3c | 835.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 10c | 817.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 809.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 578 | 11.4%66 W · 512 L | +19.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 707.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…d71ebacked Yes | 2c | 653.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 9c | 630.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 4c | 619$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 9c | 610.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 288 | 12.8%37 W · 251 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…a4f9backed Yes | 33c | 600.02$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.64 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bd…5d30backed Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 106 | 6.6%7 W · 99 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 18c | 599.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 413 | 10.7%44 W · 369 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 21c | 598.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 10c | 576.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 565$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 539.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…685cbacked Yes | 5c | 528.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 29c | 510.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 32c | 508.12$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.75 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…f0b0backed Yes | 9c | 506.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes | 3c | 504.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 3c | 482.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 26c | 470.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes | 11c | 464.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 28c | 444.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…0813backed Yes | 7c | 440$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 277 | 7.9%22 W · 255 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 4c | 414.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…4aacbacked Yes | 5c | 412.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 22c | 402.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 4c | 401$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…86dcbacked Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes | 11c | 399.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 9c | 397.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…29f8backed Yes | 12c | 395.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 393$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.