Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03305e7a0a7dbee4c33732ea73720de8eb0210bde2b3c06482671aefe0b5a324

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $263,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $175,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,970 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	3c	9,657$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.17	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	9,073$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.3	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	2c	8,771$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.22	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	6c	8,319$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.33	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	9c	7,732$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.98	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	7c	7,010$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.72	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	5,710$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.26	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	5,412$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.03	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	3c	5,345$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.13	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes	1c	4,532$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.56	63	6.3%4 W · 59 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,288$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.55	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	3c	3,927$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.63	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	3,790$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.24	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	3,128$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.06	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	7c	3,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	1c	2,250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	1c	2,111$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+354.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.09	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	13c	2,080$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.28	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255e…acbebacked Yes	6c	1,806$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	7c	1,637$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.01	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes	8c	1,629$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.43	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	3c	1,615$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.61	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	7c	1,500$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.19	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	7c	1,470$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.36	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	20c	1,455$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	1,319$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x94d0…1ccdbacked Yes	7c	1,300$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	4c	1,232$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.4	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Yes	15c	1,230$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.79	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	7c	1,201$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.23	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	1,189$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.85	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	1,158$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.83	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	5c	1,139$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.92	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	2c	1,100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.89	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	7c	976.3$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.04	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	7c	935.44$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.3	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	929.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	11c	929.98$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.04	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	900$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	855.78$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.34	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	12c	834.08$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.31	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	4c	820$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.34	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dd…d2c0backed Yes	3c	798.15$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.26	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+80.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	6c	751.86$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.98	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	741.83$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes	7c	717.66$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes	8c	716.64$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.22	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	7c	706.52$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.57	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	4c	671.67$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.68	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	655.02$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.14	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce5…425bbacked Yes	5c	652.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.84	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	9c	626.66$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.95	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes	11c	611.85$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.43	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	12c	589.13$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.52	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	6c	588.75$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.01	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	7c	548.73$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	6c	542.53$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.89	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	6c	519.24$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.56	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	10c	500$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	500$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	16c	499.28$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	4c	492.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes	11c	451.63$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes	9c	444.11$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.74	207	23.7%49 W · 158 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	14c	395.19$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.8	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	8c	370.17$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.96	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	9c	342.65$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.46	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	10c	326.46$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.34	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf86f…1660backed Yes	6c	325.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b57…c2c3backed Yes	5c	317.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb810…8919backed Yes	7c	295.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe742…7559backed Yes	11c	293.94$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.74	52	25%13 W · 39 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	12c	290.08$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	9c	286.72$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.59	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	7c	275.02$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x515d…36e1backed Yes	4c	265.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes	10c	259.22$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.32	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…ee76backed Yes	8c	252.01$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	11cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3821…bde6backed Yes	7c	239.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	7c	233.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	13c	213.4$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.03	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4965…5bc0backed Yes	5c	210.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes	19c	208.66$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	202	22.8%46 W · 156 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	6c	194.57$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fc9…cde1backed Yes	9c	194.3$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	7c	193.68$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x908e…aa3dbacked Yes	7c	185.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	78	24.4%19 W · 59 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes	10c	185.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes	8c	180.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	14c	178.07$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.18	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	7c	174.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	8c	164.46$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	13c	159.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.31	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes	9c	155.62$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	111	24.3%27 W · 84 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	17c	150.41$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.73	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes	10c	132.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.91	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd26a…732cbacked Yes	11c	103.88$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	124	35.5%44 W · 80 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	91	26.4%24 W · 67 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event