Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f76b98ce49ac234a3625f5bd52f1440dc258702488f4b15b5849df04b9132c

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $199,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $141,207

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,692 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	6,681$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,629$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.61	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	6,300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	5,000$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.36	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	4,932$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.76	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	4,800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,808$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.12	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c3…aebabacked Yes	1c	3,355$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	3,174$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.9	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	1c	2,866$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.11	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,780$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	2,651$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.68	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Yes	0c	2,650$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,355$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.33	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	1c	2,129$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.67	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	1c	1,980$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	1c	1,884$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.92	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	12c	1,769$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.69	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	1c	1,758$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.05	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,588$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes	2c	1,530$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.88	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,214$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	1,066$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.54	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	4c	1,015$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.46	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	959.96$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.68	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	923.81$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.84	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9290…9104backed Yes	2c	807.66$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	4c	711.11$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.85	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	2c	700$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	9c	700$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	4c	700$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	699.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes	16c	642.47$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b8…11a5backed Yes	6c	615$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.72	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	+13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	613.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	9c	600$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78e0…4bd9backed Yes	8c	500$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	17c	499.99$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	12c	486.66$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.4	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	15c	400$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.61	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	5c	358$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	10c	349.82$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.38	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa135…6085backed Yes	14c	349.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes	12c	330$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	4c	329.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	11c	325$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.75	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	15c	316.07$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.89	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	7c	303.88$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	15c	299.59$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.7	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	12c	289$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.68	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	11c	283.89$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.83	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	13c	280$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a46…de6dbacked Yes	11c	211.11$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+55.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49a5…a67cbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcf…d02cbacked Yes	17c	170$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddae…52c4backed Yes	12c	134.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes	14c	133.21$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	470	32.6%153 W · 317 L	+13.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce5…425bbacked Yes	15c	133$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x646c…dff9backed Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	11c	122$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes	15c	106.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	92	18.5%17 W · 75 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6259…c692backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa04a…7aecbacked Yes	13c	90.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event