Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd23da7282e434b5cf0a1d2ed0f270d9a3d1af7a9ecd3cbe4343b4384491f27e2

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $163,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $118,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,216 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	12,142$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.07	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	8,000$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.98	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,638$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	0c	4,193$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	3,500$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.4	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,117$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.48	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	3,030$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,496$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	10c	2,443$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.27	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	2,219$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.1	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	2,075$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	1,342$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	1,266$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.88	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb0…5324backed Yes	1c	1,196$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	998.94$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.97	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	805.31$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.64	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	7c	699.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	7c	600$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	10c	499.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes	11c	493.78$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.34	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	7c	477.17$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.07	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	419.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78e0…4bd9backed Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	8c	370$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	6c	360$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	7c	310.45$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.18	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes	7c	288$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.04	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	4c	249.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	11c	246.7$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.56	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99f8…a1afbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	6c	199.28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbcf…d02cbacked Yes	10c	170$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	10c	152.13$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	12c	124.16$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	11c	109.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes	12c	103.25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	470	32.6%153 W · 317 L	+13.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6259…c692backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa04a…7aecbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event