Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbff09582800ad0e73cc796fd8ee42473f4c27e94f0d5336dff9c346d13bbd2c5

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $405,977
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $246,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,977 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	8c	17,185$1,418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,417.76	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	5c	8,384$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.65	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	6c	7,842$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.59	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	7,374$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.35	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes	7c	7,282$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.51	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	6,900$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	6,047$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.77	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	9c	5,273$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.74	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	4,504$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.18	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	4,500$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.05	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	9c	4,276$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.95	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	4,265$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.35	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	4,120$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	9c	4,106$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.29	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	4,000$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.63	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	4c	3,911$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.75	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	3,863$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.49	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	13c	3,842$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.26	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	10c	3,700$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.5	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	3,700$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.66	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	3,300$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.58	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	11c	3,284$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.47	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	10c	3,046$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	8c	2,732$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.71	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	15c	2,687$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.88	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	2c	2,681$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.82	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	9c	2,515$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.03	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	2c	2,371$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.41	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	2,286$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.65	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	6c	2,151$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.29	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	7c	2,137$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.32	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	2c	2,120$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.22	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	9c	2,024$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	4c	2,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.75	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	4c	1,888$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.13	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,856$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.46	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	1,821$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.98	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	11c	1,802$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.65	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	9c	1,734$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.11	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x288d…00eabacked Yes	18c	1,686$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.31	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	6c	1,646$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.77	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	9c	1,621$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	5c	1,565$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.74	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	11c	1,557$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.56	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	12c	1,506$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	1,500$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	11c	1,490$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.95	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	7c	1,417$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.2	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes	8c	1,400$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.5	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	1,376$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.53	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	10c	1,343$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.89	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc837…550abacked Yes	2c	1,335$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	11c	1,332$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.3	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa562…6581backed Yes	7c	1,295$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.93	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2856…1ecdbacked Yes	20c	1,207$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	1,205$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.21	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes	6c	1,170$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.01	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	15c	1,159$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.14	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51df…8605backed Yes	4c	1,127$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.97	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	8c	1,110$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.65	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	2c	1,100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	14c	1,097$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.49	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	5c	1,089$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,089$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	3c	1,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.61	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	6c	999.99$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.23	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	8c	999.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	2c	999.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	15c	996.11$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.42	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Yes	1c	989.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	16c	977.97$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	9c	973.97$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.4	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	14c	960.09$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.03	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea40…2698backed Yes	5c	949.27$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.03	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	16c	920.16$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes	7c	908.02$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.77	133	23.3%31 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	13c	869.19$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.5	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f7…0f92backed Yes	11c	841.03$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.59	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	5c	836.88$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.33	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	4c	819.82$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.65	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes	3c	812.5$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.82	107	38.3%41 W · 66 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	7c	811.04$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.95	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes	4c	741.47$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.41	116	37.1%43 W · 73 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	733.26$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.42	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	9c	731.98$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.25	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bd1…d2f6backed Yes	9c	637$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.38	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	6c	601.39$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	14c	600$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	14c	578.25$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.04	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	560$448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cb0…5324backed Yes	5c	552.49$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	8c	552.15$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.65	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	4c	539.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes	6c	528$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.1	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+68.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes	4c	512.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc191…0f9abacked Yes	4c	505.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	8c	500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.3	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	4c	500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.41	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event