Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1bb7552943d2403bb56fc3eaf03a1c28d8b48db16aa48eebc76e9c429cf05d8

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $460,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $391,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,337 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 520 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	30c	18,971$5,724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,724	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No	73c	12,504$9,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,371.1	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed No	52c	8,744$4,584 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,160.32	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	24c	7,953$1,909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,909.27	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	35c	7,933$2,755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,754.72	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	27c	7,605$2,081 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,080.66	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	62c	6,882$4,272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,609.71	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	62c	6,789$4,214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,575.41	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	68c	6,777$4,617 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,159.72	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No	70c	6,370$4,477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,893.2	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	32c	6,243$2,015 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,015.19	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	37c	5,938$2,207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,207.42	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	29c	5,082$1,464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,464.31	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	54c	4,504$2,448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,448.01	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	17c	4,292$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.44	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	35c	4,008$1,403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,403.14	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	30c	4,004$1,206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,205.54	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	36c	4,001$1,459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,458.58	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No	68c	4,000$2,702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,297.54	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	56c	3,878$2,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,158.73	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	29c	3,624$1,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,042.15	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked Yes	25c	3,505$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	29c	3,334$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$952.5	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	19c	3,136$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.17	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	41c	3,063$1,243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,243.1	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	22c	3,025$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	33c	2,851$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$951.67	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes	39c	2,788$1,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,076.35	156	31.4%49 W · 107 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	26c	2,775$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.54	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No	50c	2,689$1,356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,333.27	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	23c	2,567$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.09	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	27c	2,499$666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.36	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	55c	2,499$1,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,369.04	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	32c	2,424$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.18	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	40c	2,397$947 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$946.8	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	33c	2,396$801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.85	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2856…1ecdbacked Yes	41c	2,346$969 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$968.88	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	68c	2,339$1,584 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$754.92	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	37c	2,230$829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$829.03	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes	30c	2,194$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$654.72	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	9c	2,146$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.28	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	57c	2,135$1,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,216.4	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No	73c	2,122$1,541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$581.47	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	22c	2,038$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.81	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	45c	2,024$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$904.98	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes	14c	2,007$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.63	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+7.9wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No	72c	1,963$1,407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556.14	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x288d…00eabacked Yes	42c	1,912$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$797.58	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	25c	1,799$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.65	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	33c	1,749$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.69	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	36c	1,715$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.17	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	68c	1,686$1,139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546.62	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1612…7287backed No	79c	1,620$1,284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.16	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	29c	1,610$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.04	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	24c	1,523$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.04	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	23c	1,510$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No	65c	1,509$981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528.14	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No	67c	1,503$1,005 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.68	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked No	76c	1,495$1,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$359.3	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	18c	1,467$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.57	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes	34c	1,439$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.37	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	31c	1,431$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	22c	1,405$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.83	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	61c	1,400$860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$539.99	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	17c	1,350$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.7	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	25c	1,345$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	30c	1,298$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.14	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	72c	1,289$930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$359.1	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes	26c	1,289$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.15	116	43.1%50 W · 66 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	21c	1,244$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.1	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa562…6581backed Yes	46c	1,242$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.61	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes	47c	1,200$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x504e…1a2fbacked Yes	2c	1,200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	28c	1,200$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	17c	1,191$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	28c	1,188$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.58	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	25c	1,172$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.33	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	2c	1,105$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No	30c	1,062$319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$743.39	85	32.9%28 W · 57 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d4a…282abacked Yes	1c	1,035$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xece3…19ddbacked Yes	65c	1,029$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665.43	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	66c	1,008$663 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345.39	309	55%170 W · 139 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed No	69c	1,000$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	7c	991.11$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.3	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	66c	973.29$641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$332.68	388	48.5%188 W · 200 L	+16.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea40…2698backed Yes	23c	954.4$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.38	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	48c	952.01$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.79	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed Yes	29c	949.98$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.93	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	17c	935.2$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.47	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No	70c	925.98$649 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.09	113	59.3%67 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No	61c	922.29$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362.71	147	51%75 W · 72 L	+18.0wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	16c	910.44$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.25	378	30.7%116 W · 262 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5381…1ec5backed No	59c	909.34$532 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.06	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x986d…b351backed No	72c	900$646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No	78c	890.37$696 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.1	167	50.3%84 W · 83 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No	68c	880.1$595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.24	131	61.8%81 W · 50 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	36c	865.3$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.68	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	32c	846.58$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.77	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No	80c	836.05$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.72	32	84.4%27 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	80cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	4c	783.3$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+354.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event